Statements about possible "drone swarm" attacks on Ukraine require a clear understanding of the terms and the enemy's real capabilities. Despite loud predictions, Russia currently lacks the technical capacity to launch many drones simultaneously. At the same time, the risk of large-scale terror using drones remains. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told UNN about this in a comment.
Massive attacks - yes, but not "swarms"
Recently, the media has been actively discussing the threat of so-called "drone swarms," which allegedly can simultaneously attack Ukraine in large numbers. At the same time, the expert emphasizes: it is important not to confuse massive attacks with the real concept of a "swarm" in military terminology.
If we talk about the classic understanding of a drone swarm - it is a large group of unmanned aerial vehicles that are simultaneously controlled and act synchronously in the same time frame. Currently, Russia does not have the technical capability to implement such a scenario. Even if we talk about a thousand drones - they cannot simultaneously appear in the air as a single swarm
He reminded that even the record raid in March 2026, when almost a thousand UAVs were used, was not a "swarm" in the classic sense.
On March 24, we saw a massive strike - about 948 drones of various types. But it was not a swarm, but a systematic use of weapons throughout the day. Launches continued for virtually 24 hours, from different sites, at different times
Russia is constrained by limited production and lack of launch sites
According to Kovalenko, the key limitations for Russia remain not only technology but also infrastructure. This is what prevents synchronous massive attacks.
To implement a real "swarm," one must be able to simultaneously launch a large number of drones and control them synchronously. The Russians do not have this. They lack launch sites and capabilities for simultaneous coordination of such a number of UAVs
At the same time, the enemy may try to increase the intensity of attacks through prolonged launches.
They can reach another level of terror - when a large number of drones are launched throughout the day. But this will be a process stretched over time, not a one-time swarm
Drone-"motherships" and FPV - danger to the near rear
Kovalenko paid special attention to the topic of carrier drones, or so-called "drone-motherships," which can deliver FPV drones closer to the target.
Such technologies are already being used. A carrier drone can deliver an FPV drone to a certain distance so that it does not waste battery power and then works on the target. This increases the effectiveness of the strike
However, their use is currently limited by distance.
As of now, the Russians can use such connections mainly in the near rear zone - 30-40 kilometers from the front line. Further, problems with control and signal arise
Is there a threat to rear cities?
The issue of attacks on the deep rear, particularly cities like Mykolaiv, remains relevant. However, there are significant limitations here as well.
Theoretically, such a threat exists. But there are nuances. For example, to reach Mykolaiv, a drone must overcome the Kherson direction, where it will most likely be detected and destroyed. This is a serious barrier to such attacks
At the same time, he does not rule out local risks, especially from the southern directions.
If we talk about a launch, for example, from the Kinburn Spit, then the threat to certain areas of Mykolaiv may indeed exist. But this is not a mass phenomenon and not a systemic capability for strikes on the deep rear
Real threat - systemic drone terror
In conclusion, Kovalenko emphasizes: the main danger lies not in "drone swarms," but in the constant increase in the intensity of attacks.
Talk of a thousand drones every day or every night is an exaggeration. We heard such predictions a year ago, but they did not come true. At the same time, massive attacks, stretched over time - this is a real threat, and Russia is working on it