Russia's business climate indicator fell in June to its lowest level since spring 2022, indicating a deterioration in economic sentiment among businesses. At the same time, inflation expectations are rising in the country, the number of corporate bankruptcies is increasing, and the population is increasingly pessimistic about their own financial situation. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to UNN.
Details
According to the FIS, the business climate indicator, calculated by the central bank of the Russian Federation, dropped to minus 3.6 points in June after 0.9 points in May. A zero value of this indicator is the boundary between economic growth and decline, so the current data indicates a predominance of negative expectations among businesses.
The intelligence service notes that both assessments of the current economic situation and forecasts for the future have worsened. Negative dynamics were recorded in most sectors of the economy and among enterprises of various sizes – from large businesses to small ones.
At the same time, according to the Russian central bank, companies' inflation expectations rose in July by 4.4 percentage points, to 20.2%. Among the reasons cited are fuel shortages, rising logistics costs, and increasing prices for goods.
Public sentiment is also deteriorating. A survey by the Levada Center showed a lack of optimism regarding personal well-being and the state of the economy. The consumer sentiment index has been declining for a year and at the end of June fell below the 100-point mark, which separates optimistic assessments from pessimistic ones
The FIS also drew attention to the deterioration of the financial condition of businesses. In the first half of the year, the number of legal entities declared bankrupt increased by 10.8%, and the number of new bankruptcy cases – by 20.9%. At the same time, the number of companies that publicly announced their intention to initiate bankruptcy proceedings exceeded last year's figures by 43%.
Despite this, Russian authorities continue to claim an acute labor shortage. According to Russian Minister of Labor Anton Kotyakov, over the next six years, the country's economy will need about three million workers in manufacturing specialties. At the same time, as the FIS notes, sources to cover such a personnel shortage remain unclear against the backdrop of record-low unemployment, mobilization, and mass emigration of qualified specialists.
At the same time, one of the few sectors showing positive dynamics remains the pawnshop market. According to forecasts, their profit in 2026 could increase by 60%, which, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service, is another indication of the deterioration of the population's financial situation.