Russian troops did not achieve relatively quick tactical successes west of Ocheretyne, Solovyovo, Berdychiv and Semenivka after the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from tactical positions in the area. This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War, UNN reports.
Details
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, said on Sunday, April 28, that the situation at the front has escalated. Ukrainian Defense Forces units have moved to new positions west of Berdychiv, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka.
The ISW report states that Russian forces did not make relatively rapid tactical gains west of Ocheretyne, Solovyovo, Berdychiv and Semenivka after Ukrainian forces withdrew from limited tactical positions in the area.
According to analysts, this indicates that Ukrainian troops are holding their positions and capabilities in the area, which is currently slowing down the further advance of Russian troops to the west.
"Russian forces are likely to continue to gain tactical advantages in the Avdiivka sector in the coming weeks, and Ukrainian commanders may decide to withdraw additional troops if Russian forces threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions in the area," ISW writes.
As analysts pointed out, the next line of settlements is some distance from the Ukrainian defense line, which Russian troops have been attacking since the capture of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, although Ukrainian troops may use defensive structures in fields west of the current contact line to slow down future Russian attacks.
"A complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to fortified positions west of Avdiivka would likely allow Russian forces to make a relatively rapid advance through these fields, although this advance would likely be rapid only if Ukrainian forces did not attempt to hold positions in these fields," the report says.
Syrsky added that in order to stabilize the situation in the Avdiivka sector, Ukrainian troops are redeploying units of brigades that have rested and recovered. According to the ISW, the arrival of restored Ukrainian reinforcements is likely to allow Ukrainian troops to slow down the tactical success of the Russians and possibly stabilize the front.
"Ukrainian troops are facing a shortage of resources, with a reported shortage of one to three personnel northwest of Avdiivka, but they have nevertheless prevented Russian forces, which are over a division in size, from making the gains that Russian forces should in principle have made with this ratio of forces and means," the report says.
The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional equipment will force the Russian command to either recognize that a wider or deeper penetration of the front is unlikely in the near future or to move additional reserves to the area. For now, analysts believe that Russian troops have the ability to achieve operationally important successes near Chasovo Yar and are preparing reserves to support a large-scale offensive expected this summer.
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