Russia and Ukraine may see a greater incentive to continue the three-year war instead of rushing to a settlement, according to a US intelligence community assessment that contradicts US President Donald Trump's promises of a quick end to the war, Bloomberg reports, writes UNN.
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Despite both sides demonstrating a willingness to test a partial ceasefire, "at the moment, leaders probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than the risks of an unsatisfactory settlement," according to the latest unclassified assessment by the Director of US National Intelligence, published on Tuesday.
The intelligence assessment will be presented on Tuesday at a hearing of the Senate Intelligence Committee as part of the annual report on global threats, where senior intelligence officials, including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, are scheduled to testify. This comes as the Trump administration is pressuring both sides to end hostilities, the publication notes.
The hearing is likely to be dominated by revelations this week that senior Trump officials, including Ratcliffe and Gabbard, discussed highly classified information on a non-governmental messaging app that accidentally included the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, the publication indicates.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Trump administration officials are seeking to achieve a ceasefire as early as April 20, but Ukrainian and European officials saw this timeline as too ambitious, given the steps taken by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, which the publication writes "seem aimed at prolonging discussions".
For Putin, "positive trends on the battlefield allow him to show some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, ceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could provoke a negative domestic reaction and future insecurity," according to the annual assessment.
Nevertheless, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as indicated, probably understand the risks of a protracted war. A protracted conflict could lead to the fall of the Russian economy and threatens the risk of "unwanted escalation with the West", while Zelenskyy probably understands that the future of Western aid to Ukraine is uncertain, the report says.
"Moscow also retains momentum on the battlefield, as the heavy war of attrition plays on Russia's military advantages and "will lead to a gradual but steady weakening of Kyiv's position on the battlefield, regardless of any attempts by the US or its allies to impose new and greater costs on Moscow"", the publication writes, citing the report.
The US intelligence community also "continues to see a risk that Putin may resort to nuclear weapons," the publication writes. "Russia's inability to achieve quick and decisive victories on the battlefield, combined with Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, continues to raise concerns that Putin may use nuclear weapons," the assessment says.
In the past, the publication notes, Trump was outraged when intelligence chiefs offered an assessment that contradicted his position. In 2019, during Trump's previous term, they expressed less optimism than the US president on issues such as the preservation of the Islamic State terrorism and the threat of Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs. Trump attacked them on Twitter, calling them "naive" and saying that "perhaps intelligence should go back to school!"