December was an important month for Ukrainian corn exports: almost 1.7 million tons of corn were exported from Ukraine, and experts expect the total volume for the month to exceed 2 million tons.
This was reported by the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council and UNN .
Details
Despite these results, there were problems with shipments in the first half of December, which slowed down the pace of exports. This is reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative #PUSK, created within #VAR.Corn prices are stable at 205-207 USD/t on a CPT basis, and there is a potential to reach 210-215 USD/t in January.
A key factor that could affect further price increases is weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.
The corn market is in a kind of “golden period”. In January, any importer who wants to get supplies has to turn to Ukraine, as US corn is already sold out. This creates conditions for sellers to dictate the price. However, it is important to remember that in February-March we may face competitive pressure on the European market due to cheaper US corn
In addition, Ukrainian corn continues to dominate the European market, while the US actively exports to Latin America and Mexico. However, the price difference in the European market is about $10/t in favor of American products.
According to forecasts, in January the market will be sensitive to news about the second crop sowing campaign in Brazil and the condition of crops in Argentina, where there are already problems with moisture.
“Over the past 10 years, only twice has the corn market been stable in January and February without significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the probability of getting higher prices during this period is quite high. However, in April-May corn may become a scarce commodity, which will again create preconditions for price growth,” the analysts added.
Recall
Earlier, UNN wrote that in 16 months , Ukrainian agricultural products were exported to 50 countries through the sea corridor. More than 90 million tons of products passed through the ports of Odesa, which is 14% more than last year.