The Russian Foreign Ministry announced an invitation to the summit in Miami on December 14-15. The final decision on participation will be made closer to the date of the event.
News of a possible invitation of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami could become a dangerous symbolic gesture for the whole world. Moscow interprets such signals not as diplomacy, but as a weakness of the West. At the same time, Donald Trump's team does not demonstrate a coherent strategy regarding Russia's war against Ukraine. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to UNN by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi.
According to the expert, Putin only understands the language of force, and any concessions or attempts to "restart dialogue" only strengthen his confidence in the correctness of his own course.
Inviting Putin is a curtsy that the Kremlin will perceive as a victory
The political scientist is convinced that the very fact of a possible invitation of Putin to the G20 summit is a negative signal not only for Ukraine, but also for global politics in general.
These are bad curtsies towards Putin. This is again about weakness. Putin only respects strength. If they hit you in the teeth, it means they are strong, it means you should be afraid of them and avoid them. If they don't hit you, it means they are either afraid or respect you. That's how he perceives it
In his opinion, Trump's current approach does not look convincing to the Kremlin.
Trump does not look strong to Putin right now. Ukraine is hitting where it hurts. And the United States is not. And when you are also invited after international isolation, when they didn't want to talk to you for years, it will look like a personal diplomatic victory for Putin
Russia will use this for the Global South
Oleh Lisnyi believes that even if Putin does not personally go to the summit, the very story of the invitation will be used by Kremlin propaganda.
They will inflate this in the information field for the countries of the Global South. They will say that Russia is talking again, Russia is again рукопожатна (handshakeable), Russia is being returned to big politics. This is a very bad message
According to the political scientist, such a story gives Trump practically nothing.
What will he get from this? Nothing. And Putin will say: I am invited - so I am doing everything right. That's exactly how the Kremlin will interpret it
Trump has no strategy regarding Russia
Commenting on the Trump team's policy regarding Russia's war against Ukraine, the expert stated that he does not see a systemic approach.
I'll say more - I don't see any strategy at all in them. They work in fits and starts. If it worked - good, if it didn't - they look for a new move. At the beginning of the cadence, statements were made: we have a plan, we will show it soon, everything is ready. Then time passed, and they started talking completely differently
According to Lisnyi, this indicates a lack of internal concept.
I draw a simple conclusion: there is no strategy. And if there is none, then they work situationally. And, importantly, there are no people in the team who can tell Trump: we are going the wrong way
Trump thinks like a businessman, but it doesn't work with the Kremlin
The expert emphasizes that Trump's main mistake is an attempt to apply business logic to Putin's authoritarian regime.
Trump thinks in terms of a deal. He believes that one can sit down, agree, and all parties will get something. But with the Russian Federation, it doesn't work that way. There, the logic is different - force, pressure, coercion, expansion. An agreement for them is a pause before a new strike
He added that previous experience of contacts with the Kremlin has already shown this.
If we rely on the results of previous high-profile meetings and attempts at understanding, nothing groundbreaking has happened. Therefore, there are no grounds to believe that it will be different now
The war will last a long time - the question is not about Trump, but about Putin
Commenting on the new funding for Ukraine from the European Union, Lisnyi stated that this indicates preparation for a long confrontation.
I think the war will last a long time. And the question is not even about Trump's cadence. The question is about Putin's cadence - in the direct sense, within the limits of his physical existence. That is where the key to ending this war lies now
In his opinion, the internal state of Russia is the main factor of future changes.
Kashchey's needle is not in Washington now. It is in the economy of the Russian Federation, in the regime's ability to maintain the system, finance the war, and control society
Ukraine is increasingly oriented towards Europe
Lisnyi believes that Kyiv is already adapting to a new reality, where the main support is not the United States, but Europe.
We see this in the rhetoric of the President of Ukraine. It is no longer American-centric, but more Euro-centric. And this is logical. Because it is Europe that is now demonstrating consistency and readiness to support us longer
In conclusion, the expert emphasized that Ukraine must act based on its own interests.
We need to do our own thing. We need to weaken the Russian Federation together with Europe. Because the United States, unfortunately, is not currently demonstrating the readiness to do this on the scale that is needed
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