Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is relying on nuclear saber-rattling to project military strength following Russia's apparent failure to ensure full security for the May 9 Victory Day parade. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
It is noted that on the eve, Putin claimed that Russian forces successfully tested the RS-28 "Sarmat" super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Putin's rhetoric regarding the March 2026 test launch of the "Sarmat" ICBM mirrors his rhetoric regarding the initial tests of the "Oreshnik" IRBM, although Putin's posturing regarding the "Sarmat" is intended to conceal his weakness, which became evident through the need to ask Ukraine to commit to not striking the Victory Day parade in Russia on May 9
They emphasize that Ukraine's long-range strikes into the Russian rear have exposed Russia's weakness and inability to reliably defend its deep rear areas, including its capital, from these strikes, and "as a result, Russia held a significantly scaled-back parade."
Putin likely intends for his "Sarmat" test launch and his rhetoric to hide the fact that it was Ukraine's actions, not Russia's, that guaranteed the security of the Victory Day parade in Moscow
Europe should talk to Putin - President of Finland12.05.26, 09:55
They conclude that Putin's posturing regarding the "Sarmat" ICBM is likely also intended to distract from Russia's deteriorating performance on the battlefield, particularly during the spring-summer offensive of 2026.
"Ukrainian forces have forced Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and forces to priority sectors of the frontline—a choice that embarrasses Putin, whose theory of victory depends on Russian forces simultaneously advancing across the entire theater of operations and being close to collapsing Ukrainian lines. Not only are Ukrainian defensive lines holding, but Ukrainian forces have managed to seize the tactical initiative in several sectors of the frontline, even as Russia continues to lose a disproportionate amount of manpower to achieve minimal gains," the analysts summarize.
As a reminder
The Kremlin reiterated Vladimir Putin's statement that the war against Ukraine is allegedly "nearing its end." Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Moscow shows no intention of stopping hostilities and is preparing new attacks.