The Opta supercomputer has updated its forecast for the 2026 FIFA World Cup playoffs after the group stage concluded. The model simulated the tournament 25,000 times and assessed each national team's chances of advancing to the next rounds and winning the title, reports UNN.
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According to the forecast, the main favorite of the tournament is the French national team, which is given an 18.7% chance of winning. The second contender is Argentina (16.3%), third is Spain (13.5%). The top five also includes England (9.7%) and Brazil (6.5%).
At the same time, Argentina has the highest chance of reaching the final - 30%, while for France this figure is 28.4%. Spain is predicted to have a 22.7% chance of reaching the decisive match, England - 18.6%, and Brazil - 13.7%.
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According to Opta estimates, the teams that could contend for the trophy also include the Netherlands (5.1%), Portugal (4.7%), Germany (4.4%), Colombia (3.2%), and Norway (3%).
Among the teams considered potential surprise packages, the best chances are held by the USA (2.5%), Switzerland (2.2%), Mexico (1.8%), Morocco (1.6%), Belgium (1.6%), and Japan (1%).
At the same time, for most other playoff participants, the chances of winning the championship remain minimal. In particular, Opta gives Ecuador and Croatia 0.6% each, Canada, Senegal, and Egypt - 0.5% or less. The smallest chances are for South Africa, DR Congo, and Cape Verde - less than 0.1%, and Cape Verde did not even receive a 0.1% probability of victory.
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