Oil prices fell by 1% — what is the price forecast

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Brent fell to $96.92, while WTI dropped to $89.18 per barrel. Exports from the Persian Gulf are recovering, while U.S. inventories have increased.

Oil prices fell by 1% on Thursday, October 1. This came as the resumption of oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries and an unexpected increase in U.S. inventories eased supply concerns, while investors assessed the renewal of U.S.-Iranian diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East. UNN reports, citing Reuters.

Details

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.1% to $96.92 per barrel by 04:20 GMT (07:20 Kyiv time), while the price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $89.18 per barrel.

Both benchmarks rose by approximately $1 per barrel on Wednesday. Brent recorded a monthly increase of around 14% in September, its largest gain since July, while WTI rose by approximately 5% over the month.

What is the forecast for oil prices

"The short-term outlook for oil prices remains negative, as the restoration of supplies from the Persian Gulf region, the resumption of Saudi oil exports through Yanbu, and the buildup of U.S. inventories are easing supply concerns," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet.

Saudi Arabia resumed loading oil tankers from Yanbu, Reuters reported on Tuesday, following the earlier restoration of operations on its East-West pipeline.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with Reuters poll expectations of an increase of 264,000 barrels.

"The resumption of diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran could further reduce the geopolitical risk premium, although a breakthrough remains uncertain," Sachdeva said.

Iran said on Wednesday that it had received the U.S. response to its latest proposal to restore a ceasefire in the Persian Gulf.

U.S. President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN, which cited American officials as saying that he was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and return frozen Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete" steps by Tehran regarding its nuclear program.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries, including "dark exports" involving vessels operating with their location transponders switched off, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with the 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, according to a note on Tuesday.

In addition, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets unchanged for November when they meet on Sunday, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Russia is reaping the benefits of tensions in the Middle East through oil exports, but there is a caveat - Bloomberg29.09.26, 16:36

Julia Shramko Economy
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