Two countries on NATO's eastern flank are warning of a possible Russian provocation that could be directed against Poland or the Baltic states to test the Alliance's unity. This is reported by UNN citing The Guardian.
Details
As the publication notes, Latvian intelligence stated in its report that there are signs of Russia preparing military provocations against Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland. At the same time, it is not about a full-scale invasion, but about possible hybrid actions — missile strikes, drone attacks, or other incidents designed to force the West to reduce support for Ukraine.
According to The Guardian, a similar assessment was given by a senior official from another NATO country, who stated that Vladimir Putin may seek to test the reliability of US security guarantees for the smallest members of the Alliance.
Baltic countries urge EU to accelerate abandonment of Russian oil imports - FT27.06.26, 12:36
The publication also cites the assessment of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who stated that in the coming weeks and months there is a risk of various forms of escalation. Chatham House expert Keir Giles suggests that the Kremlin may resort to so-called "horizontal escalation," i.e., shifting tensions beyond Ukraine.
The Guardian recalls that Russia has previously been linked to sabotage in European countries, including incendiary devices in DHL shipments and violations of Polish airspace by Russian drones.