Until August, the price per dollar will fluctuate at the level of 40-42 UAH, but in October the exchange rate may change due to a number of negative factors. This opinion was expressed by economic expert Ilya Neskhodovsky in an exclusive commentary to UNN.
"Today, the exchange rate is set by the NBU after the fact. Not manually... but we can say this: by entering the market with certain volumes of currency sales, respectively, it can contribute to both the growth of the exchange rate and its decrease. The only thing is that when there is a peak load, as it happened after the NBU decided on currency liberalization, it may not be able to cope with the trends that exist in the market at a certain point in time. So the NBU can lower it to a conditional 38 or raise it to 44," Neskhodovsky said.
According to him, in the fall and winter, factors may be added that will affect the exchange rate.
"Yes, we have a negative trade balance, which is, of course, a serious disadvantage that affects the weakening of the national currency. In addition, the situation with electricity has worsened after the shelling, and as a result, domestic production will decline slightly due to the impossibility of 100% utilization. In addition, electricity imports from abroad have increased to supply the domestic grid. As a result, these are the negative factors that affect the exchange rate," Neskhodovsky said.
At the same time, he said, the NBU now has enough currency to influence the exchange rate in accordance with the regulator's policy.
Given that the NBU is primarily interested in stability, it is likely to keep the exchange rate at 40-42 hryvnia until the end of summer, i.e. until August. In October, there may be trends, shelling and everything else - in other words, there are so many risks during the war that it is difficult to assess how the situation will develop
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Earlier, in an exclusive interview with UNN, the co-founder of Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions, Olena Sosiedka did not rule out that the price of the dollar could rise to 44 hryvnias by the end of the year. According to her, the main factors affecting the currency market are the foreign economic, political and military situation in our country. In addition, the exchange rate will largely depend on the ability of Ukrainian producers to export their goods.
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Sosiedka has previously noted that the future of the Ukrainian banking system is the subject of active discussion among economists and officials. One of the strategies for developing the system is to concentrate bank capital and privatize state-owned banks. It should be understood that the banking system does not exist on its own - it is a "litmus test of the level of economic development of a country and the trends that are cultivated in it." Therefore, among the important issues facing the banking system today, the expert noted the provision of clear and uniform rules for the banking sector, for example, effective monitoring of banking transactions and other important conditions for the development of the industry.
In general, Olena Sosiedka believes that the Ukrainian banking sector needs to change, especially when implementing the Open Banking-2025 concept , which is a completely new role model for our market. These issues relate not only to legal but also to technical aspects, such as unified standards and ways to control technical processes. In particular, this is important for the implementation of the same open banking concept approved by the National Bank of Ukraine.