One of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, has raised the probability of a recession in the United States to 45% from 35%. Thus, for the second time in recent days, it has increased its forecast amid the growing escalation in the "trade war" launched by Donald Trump, writes UNN with reference to Reuters.
Details
Goldman Sachs raised its estimate from 20% at the beginning of last week due to concerns that President Trump's planned tariffs would undermine the global economy.
A few days later, the head of the White House announced tougher-than-expected duties, which caused a sell-off in global markets.
Since then, at least seven leading investment banks have raised their forecasts for the risk of recession, and financial conglomerate J.P.Morgan has estimated the probability of recession in the US and the world at 60% due to concerns that tariffs will not only fuel inflation in the US, but also trigger retaliatory measures from other countries.
For example, China has already begun to take countermeasures. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US economic growth in 2025 to 1.3% from 1.5%. This, however, is higher than the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) forecast of 1% growth, while J.P.Morgan estimates a quarterly decline of 0.3%.
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Futures on US stock indices and Asian stocks fell sharply at the beginning of trading after the administration of US President Donald Trump stated that large-scale tariffs would be maintained, despite fears that they could trigger a global economic recession.
Global oil prices continued to fall on Monday, which began last week. WTI fell by more than 4%, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China raise concerns about a recession that will lead to lower demand for oil