The European Commission needs to secure a much-needed 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine, despite resistance from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and a struggle is underway to find a solution to bypass Orbán, with a number of options, Politico reports, writes UNN.
Details
"For some in the EU, it's a familiar scenario. The European Commission needs to overcome a member state's stubborn resistance to a key initiative – a much-needed 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine. But a day after marking the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, suspicion is growing in Brussels that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is not playing by his usual rules of engagement. And with Kyiv running out of money in March, a struggle is underway to find a workaround," the publication states.
European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen "seemed determined to find a way around Hungary's resistance when they visited Kyiv this week." "Their message: take the hit, then move on to solutions. (...) They made it clear that Hungary would not be allowed to sink the loan, and a way would be found," the publication notes.
"We have often had to deal with Hungary's resistance to certain decisions, but in the end, we always found a way forward," European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters in Paris.
This view, the publication writes, was shared by diplomats who argued that a threat from an EU member to derail key initiatives is nothing new, and that it is too early to sound the alarm.
"Regarding sanctions, we always found a way," two said, almost repeating each other word for word.
"This optimism is not shared by all players," the publication notes. And it points out: "Some worry that this time it's different."
"In Budapest, efforts are being made to turn the loan to Ukraine – and the broader clash with the EU – into a political trap for the country's opposition ahead of Hungary's parliamentary elections on April 12." Orbán is acting obstructively in Europe, "with elections in mind," one EU official said.
"Negotiations are ongoing within the European Commission and between capitals, and they will continue today with another meeting of EU ambassadors," the publication writes. But, the publication notes, "the path forward is treacherous."
"There's the pipeline, the elections in Hungary, and Ukraine's urgent need for a loan... at this stage, it's hard to see where it will all lead," one EU diplomat said.
Hungary "has become even more unpredictable than usual," one diplomat said.
"Diplomats and EU officials are concerned that, regardless of his public stance, Orbán has rarely backed out of a final deal once it has been struck. In his letter to Costa earlier this week, he even called himself 'one of the most disciplined and consistent members of the European Council.' Many in Brussels acknowledge that there is a grain of truth to this. But with elections approaching and his political survival at stake, will Orbán play by the same rules?" the publication states.
The EU executive and Costa, who are tasked with addressing Orbán's position, as the publication writes, "have limited room for out-of-the-box thinking." "Pressuring him during his election campaign might not be the smartest move," said the first diplomat.
"The EU can always invoke Article 7, which allows the EU to suspend a member state's voting rights and bypass Hungary's opposition to the Ukraine aid package. But this could play into Orbán's pre-election narrative. Another option would be to impose rule of law conditions – suspending EU funding – or infringement procedures. However, this would take time... which Ukraine does not have.
As stated, "the broader view in Brussels is that this requires a different approach."
"That's why the European Parliament and the EU Council have already signed off on elements of the loan package that are not subject to Hungary's veto, ensuring the mechanism is ready," the publication points out.
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As one MEP official said: "We have set up the delivery system so that money can start flowing as soon as Hungary allows it." This, of course, is provided that Budapest is willing to come to the negotiating table, the publication notes.
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