In winter, it is quite realistic that consumers will not have electricity for 5-6 hours a day. It may be even better if Ukraine can restore more generation. This was reported by Yasno CEO Serhiy Kovalenko in an interview with Forbes, UNN reports.
This year, I would distinguish three seasons in which we will have a different situation with the availability of electricity. The first season is summer. The second season is the beginning of autumn, when there will be an off-season and then the heating season
According to him, in summer the peak consumption is 30% higher than in March-April. The reason is air conditioners. First of all, business air conditioning systems. The second summer problem is the season of the nuclear generation repair campaign. Nuclear units are currently undergoing repairs to maximize their winter operation.
Therefore, according to him, the current electricity deficit is between 15% and 25%. But at some point, the deficit may be much higher or lower. It depends on how many NPP units will be operating simultaneously.
"Everything will depend on the temperature and the repair companies of the nuclear units. At the same time, we are restoring everything that can be restored," Kovalenko said.
Then, as he said, there will be an off-season, when it will not be so hot and not so cold. Then the situation will be more or less normal.
Kovalenko noted that in winter, the consumption peak is even higher than in summer. The forecast depends on several factors. He hopes that by winter, they will be able to increase the cross-section for electricity imports to more than 2 GW. Currently, it is 1.7 GW.
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He also noted that the second question is what kind of winter it will be. If the average temperature is +10, then it will be happy. If it is -15, it will be bad. The lower the temperature, the higher the heating consumption.
I personally estimate that the generation deficit may reach 35% based on the sum of factors... I think that, to answer the question, 5-6 hours of electricity per day for consumers is quite realistic, but I think it can be better. It depends on how much we will restore (generation - ed.)... Therefore, according to the winter forecast, I think the following things are correct. We need to prepare based on the fact that there will be 5-6 hours of light per day, but at the end of August we need to update the forecast, because we will understand how much generation we have in the middle and then we can make a mathematical calculation