Damage to key bridges on the approaches to occupied Crimea could become one of the most serious challenges for Russian logistics during the full-scale war, and strikes on transport infrastructure are already affecting the ability to supply the peninsula and creating prerequisites for its gradual isolation. Military expert Oleh Zhdanov spoke specifically for UNN about what is happening in Crimea and the prospects for the development of events on the peninsula.
According to the expert, today the main burden of supplying occupied Crimea falls on land routes through Perekop, Armyansk, and Chonhar. These specific directions remain key for transporting goods both to the peninsula itself and for Russian troops operating in the southern direction of the front. Therefore, the loss or restriction of these routes significantly complicates the occupiers' logistics.
Chonhar Bridge destroyed – Head of the CPD of the NSDC10.06.26, 12:33
The Crimean Bridge, following the damage, can no longer withstand its design load. Traffic there is very heavily restricted. On the railway section, there is even a ban on transporting fuel tankers to the territory of the peninsula. Therefore, the Perekop–Armyansk and Chonhar directions are today the main logistical routes for Crimea,
He explained that it was precisely because of the importance of these routes that Russia invested significant funds in the development of transport infrastructure in the occupied territories. In particular, the "Novorossiya" highway was built, which was used not only for the needs of Crimea.
This is the main logistics for Crimea. But not only for Crimea. This highway is also used by the Russian troop groupings "Dnipro" and "Zapad" to transfer equipment, personnel, ammunition, and military property. Therefore, strikes on these routes are significant not only for the peninsula
At the same time, the military analyst observed that Russia no longer maintains a large land grouping in Crimea. According to him, a significant part of the personnel was transferred to the front due to problems with troop manning.
Today we know for sure that the Russian Federation's mobilization system cannot cope with replenishing losses. Therefore, they are instead taking military personnel from Crimea to the front. Mostly signalmen, air defense units, special forces, and units providing coastal protection remain there
Despite this, supplying the peninsula remains an important task for the occupation authorities. This especially applies to air defense systems, which Russia continues to transfer to Crimea after losses from Ukrainian strikes.
In the near future, we will isolate Crimea — "Madyar"11.06.26, 19:27
We are knocking out air defense systems, and they are forced to bring in new ones. But there is no mass transfer of tanks or armored vehicles to the peninsula right now. The main focus is on supporting those units that remain in Crimea
In addition, the expert does not rule out that the Russian side will try to compensate for the loss of logistical routes through pontoon crossings. In particular, such solutions may be applied in the area of Chonhar and the North Crimean Canal.
They will try to set up pontoon crossings. This is possible across the North Crimean Canal. In the Chonhar area, such structures have already been used before. But we know where they are located and can keep them under fire control
Furthermore, Russia may try to use sea transport more actively. However, the expert emphasizes that this option also does not guarantee safe supplies.
The Crimean Bridge and sea transport remain. They can use landing ships as cargo vessels. But these routes are also under our influence. We are not going to just watch as they supply the occupation forces
In Zhdanov's opinion, the current situation already allows for talk about the beginning of the formation of an "operational pocket" for Russian troops in Crimea, and he recalled that similar examples have occurred repeatedly in history.
This is no longer a logistical trap, but an operational pocket. History shows that no army in the world could hold Crimea for long after losing logistics. Whoever controls the supply routes controls the situation on the peninsula
According to the military analyst, over the past years, Ukraine has already significantly changed the situation around Crimea, which is why Russian troops were forced to reduce their grouping on the peninsula, and Black Sea Fleet ships left their main bases.
Once there was a large grouping of Russian troops in Crimea. Today it is no longer there. We have effectively knocked the Black Sea Fleet out of there. And after the appearance of long-range drones, we gained the ability to influence the peninsula's logistics as well
Separately, the expert commented on reports of growing panic among the population of Crimea. According to him, information is already coming in about queues at gas stations and attempts by the occupation authorities to take the situation under control.
There is information that instructions are already being issued to stop the panic and disperse queues at gas stations. A coordination headquarters for fuel distribution has also been created. This indicates that the problem is recognized even by the occupiers themselves
Also, according to the expert, in the event of further deterioration of the situation, military needs will be prioritized, and the civilian population may face shortages.
The possibility of restricting fuel sales to civilians is even being considered. First and foremost, the resource is needed by the army, air defense systems, utility, and law enforcement services. Increasingly less may remain for the population
Thus, speaking about the prospects for the development of events, Oleh Zhdanov believes that the current difficulties are only the beginning of more serious problems for the occupation authorities.
I would say that this is the beginning of difficulties in Crimea and on the Azov coast. It will get harder from here. For those who moved to Crimea after the occupation, this is already a serious signal to think about the future
In addition, the peninsula is gradually losing its status as a safe rear for the Russian army.
Putin once said that Crimea would become an unsinkable aircraft carrier. But today this "aircraft carrier" has already sprung a leak. One could say that a serious hole has appeared in its "hull." And the consequences of this are becoming increasingly noticeable