The US military has significantly depleted its arsenals of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a "short-term risk" of running out of ammunition in a future conflict, should one arise in the next few years, according to experts and three individuals familiar with recent internal Pentagon stock assessments, CNN reports, writes UNN.
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Over the past seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its arsenals of precision-guided munitions; at least half of its arsenals of THAAD missiles, designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its arsenals of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
These figures are closely related to classified Pentagon data on US arsenals, according to sources familiar with the assessment.
Earlier this year, the Pentagon signed a series of contracts that will help expand missile production, but delivery times for replacing these systems are three to five years, even with increased capacity, CSIS experts and sources said.
In the short term, the US will likely retain enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran, under any scenario, if the fragile ceasefire fails to hold. But the amount of critical ammunition remaining in US arsenals is no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary like China, and it will likely take years before stockpiles of these weapons return to pre-war levels, the CSIS analysis concludes.
"High ammunition expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the Western Pacific," Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and one of the authors of the CSIS report, told CNN. "It will take one to four years to replenish these stocks, and several years after that to expand them to the required level."
In a statement to CNN, Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said the military "has everything it needs to conduct operations at a time and place chosen by the President."
"Since President Trump took office, we have conducted numerous successful operations within combatant commands, ensuring that the American military has a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests," he said.
According to the analysis and sources, the US military also expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile arsenals; over 20% of its arsenals of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles; and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. It will take about four to five years to replace these systems.
The missile math tracking depleted arsenals sharply contrasts with US President Donald Trump's recent statement that the US is not running out of any weapons, even as he requested additional funding for missiles due to the impact of the war in Iran on existing arsenals, the publication writes.
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Recent agreements by the Trump administration with private companies should increase production, but short-term deliveries of these key munitions are relatively low due to small orders in the past, the CSIS report notes.
Before the war, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kane and other military leaders warned Trump that a prolonged military campaign could affect US weapons stockpiles, especially those supporting Israel and Ukraine, as CNN previously reported.
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And since the conflict began, Democrats on Capitol Hill have expressed concern about the amount of ammunition used and what it could mean for US defense in the Middle East and beyond.
"The Iranians really have the ability to produce a lot of Shahed drones, medium- and short-range ballistic missiles, and they have huge stockpiles," Democratic Senator Mark Kelly said last month. "So at some point... it becomes a math problem: how can we replenish air defense ammunition stockpiles. Where will they come from?"