The United States warns that Russia is planning an armed "provocation" on Polish soil to test NATO's resolve, reports The Telegraph, writes UNN.
Details
As the publication writes, "Polish critical infrastructure could become a target of missiles and drones, or Russian soldiers could cross the border into NATO territory."
"Washington has sent several warnings to Warsaw about this plot," sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told Polish news outlet Onet, which together with The Telegraph is owned by Axel Springer and is part of its Global Network of Reporters.
"The goal of the Russian provocation will be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine," the publication states.
"It could be launched within a few months," the article says.
Polish security service sources "also do not rule out a more traditional attack, such as a small ground incursion by Russian soldiers across NATO's eastern flank," the publication writes.
According to Onet sources in the security services, "provocation scenarios could include a drone attack on critical infrastructure, such as power plants, or simulating airstrikes that would force Poland to activate its air defense systems."
One source in Polish intelligence stated that "in the most extreme scenario, a 'hybrid attack in the border region' could occur."
The same source stated that "an armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers is possible."
"Russia could present this as an accidental entry into Polish territory due to a GPS failure or as a dubious rescue mission to retrieve a faulty helicopter," the publication says.
"Russia will count on the fact that instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland will be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus, rather than respond with force," Polish Onet sources reported.
"A scenario in which the Russians withdraw troops from Poland as a result of these negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, will be seen as a victory from Moscow's point of view," the publication notes.
As the publication indicates, "the cessation of Western support for Ukraine could even be a central demand of Russia in such negotiations in exchange for the withdrawal of troops from Poland."
The US "is systematically informing Poland about constantly new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, from which Poland is in no way excluded," a source close to the Polish president stated.
A second source, an ambassador to one of Poland's NATO allies, also confirmed that "a provocation in one of the Baltic countries and/or Poland is a serious risk," as did a third source in the Polish Ministry of Defense.
A fourth source in the Baltic security field confirmed to The Telegraph that "such plans are being discussed in Moscow." "Russia may then try to claim that the provocation was carried out by Ukraine," the publication states.
"Any ground attack by Russia could be launched either from Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave north of Poland where nuclear weapons are located, or from Belarus in the east," the article notes.
A member of the leadership of the Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed to Onet the possibility of a Russian provocation, but noted that Poland has already conducted exercises aimed at warning Moscow about a devastating NATO response.
"From Moscow's point of view, a provocation aimed at Poland would be a better option than a provocation against one of the Baltic states," sources in the European security field reported.
Onet sources emphasized that "any Russian provocation will not resemble a 'classic' or conventional war, and that Moscow has not yet fully committed to carrying it out."
The Telegraph "understands that NATO could respond to any Russian provocation with direct attacks on Kaliningrad, which was named a potential target by German Air Force commander Holger Neumann."