Estonian intelligence: Russia will not open a front in the Baltics, but the Kremlin is unpredictable

April 25, 2026 at 02:57 AM • 2684 переглядiв

Estonian intelligence sees no grounds for a new Russian front against the Baltic states or NATO. At the same time, the Kremlin is irrational, despite failures in Ukraine.

Estonian intelligence currently provides no grounds to believe that Russia may open a new front against the Baltic states. At the same time, the Kremlin is unpredictable and often takes irrational steps. This was stated by the head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, as reported by UNN citing ERR.

Details

According to him, assessing the threat of aggression is a rather complex process that requires evaluating the current military state, the government's political intentions, and the feasibility of carrying out an attack in the international context. At the same time, the military officer noted that Russia has largely failed to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine, and even if some of them were achieved, it happened much later than initially planned.

With recruits from criminal districts, as well as contract servicemen, it is impossible to maintain such a pace for long. The culminating point has been reached, and if the pace of the offensive is to be maintained at this level, mobilization is necessary
- noted Kiviselg.

According to the colonel, there is no such threat that Russia might attack either the Baltic states or NATO as a whole.

Today, even if this mobilization is carried out in Russia, there are no signs that this mobilized unit will be used in any way against NATO countries. At the same time, the defense forces, including the intelligence center, work daily to prevent a potential war
- emphasized the head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces.

At the same time, he added that although there are no signs of an attack, the Russian leadership is unpredictable and often makes irrational decisions.

"Logically speaking, it would make no sense for the Russian Federation to start a new front elsewhere in the region. But we have seen that the Russian Federation is not always rational in its decisions and can make strategic miscalculations", – explained the colonel.