Russian oil has fallen to a level not seen since before the start of the Iran war

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The average price of Urals oil at Russian western ports in the first days of July was $41.66 per barrel. This complicates the Kremlin's ability to control the growing budget deficit.

The price of flagship Russian crude has fallen to levels seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. This is reported by Bloomberg, citing Argus Media, writes UNN.

Details

According to Argus Media, in the first three days of July, the average price of Urals crude at Russia's western ports was $41.66 per barrel, less than half the level recorded at the height of the oil market crisis in April.

The preliminary figures point to serious problems for Moscow, which had previously been earning extraordinary revenues thanks to the conflict in the Middle East.

Russia became one of the biggest winners when the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off supplies from the Persian Gulf, and exemptions from US sanctions boosted demand for Russian oil.

Since March, the average monthly price of Urals crude has exceeded the 59 dollars per barrel projected in Russia's budget for this year.

In June, in particular, it stood at $60.92 per barrel, as traffic through Hormuz picked up after Washington and Tehran signed a temporary agreement to restore operations on this vital waterway.

The surge in revenues allowed Russia to resume replenishing its reserve fund for the first time in nearly a year and postpone cuts to non-priority spending.

Now, if prices remain below the budget threshold for an extended period, it will further complicate the Kremlin's ability to keep the growing deficit under control.

In the first five months of this year, the budget deficit rose to 6 trillion rubles ($77 billion), or 2.6% of GDP, exceeding the target for the entire year 2026 by approximately 60%.

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Olga Rozgon Economy
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