The El Niño climate phenomenon will continue to intensify until the end of 2026, with a 97% probability of its persistence until early spring 2027. This is reported by UNN citing Reuters.
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According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, there is an 81% probability that a very powerful El Niño will form in October-December, which could become one of the strongest in the history of observations dating back to 1950.
El Niño occurs due to the weakening of trade winds, leading to the accumulation of warm waters in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon typically causes a rise in global temperatures and significantly alters weather conditions in various regions of the world — from droughts to large-scale floods.
According to Donald Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather, El Niño usually brings cooler and wetter weather to the U.S. Midwest in late summer, which is favorable for growing corn and soybeans.
At the same time, China has already warned of an increased risk of extreme weather events, including floods and heatwaves, during this year and next.
In contrast, the consequences for India could be negative. Forecasters expect a weaker monsoon season, with rainfall already approximately 40% lower than the long-term average. This could negatively impact cotton, soybean, and corn crops.
Last week, the UN World Meteorological Organization also raised its forecast for the rapid formation of a powerful El Niño, warning that it will likely contribute to further increases in global temperatures.
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