During the first week of July, Russia sharply increased its use of ballistic missiles in massive attacks on Ukraine. The second combined strike on Kyiv in a week demonstrated a new dangerous trend – it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukrainian air defense to intercept ballistic targets due to an acute shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems. If the current intensity continues, July could become a record month for the number of ballistic missiles used by Russia over the entire period of the full-scale war. UNN has compiled expert assessments of Russia's new tactics, the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense, and ways to solve the problem.
Second massive strike on Kyiv in a week
On the night of July 5, Russia launched the second large-scale combined strike on Kyiv and the region in a week, using attack drones, cruise and ballistic missiles.
As a result of one of the hits, a nine-story residential building partially collapsed. The Russian Defense Ministry traditionally stated that the targets of the attack were "military enterprises," but the consequences of the strike once again indicate damage to civilian infrastructure.
The previous massive attack on the capital, which occurred on July 2, claimed the lives of 31 people. Against the backdrop of the latest strike, particular attention was drawn to the information that none of the ballistic missiles used this time were intercepted.
July could become a record for the number of ballistic strikes
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko, in a comment to UNN, noted that the statistics on Russia's use of ballistic missiles are rapidly worsening.
In the incomplete first week of July, Russian occupation forces used 49 ballistic missiles against Ukraine, of which only four were shot down. If this dynamic continues, July could become an absolute record holder for the use of ballistic missiles over the entire period of the full-scale invasion
According to him, since the beginning of 2026, Russia has already used 553 ballistic munitions.
Of these 553 targets, only 160 were intercepted, i.e., approximately 29%. At the same time, it must be understood: to guarantee the destruction of one ballistic missile, one PAC-3 interceptor missile is very often insufficient. In most cases, two, and sometimes even three, are used. That is, to intercept such a volume of Russian ballistic missiles, Ukraine would need to have at least a thousand interceptor missiles
Russia produces more missiles than the West can compensate for
According to the expert, the problem lies not only in stockpiles but also in production capabilities.
Today, Russia produces on average about three ballistic missiles per day, or approximately 90–100 9M723 type missiles per month. If this intensity continues, the enemy could produce over a thousand such missiles within a year. To intercept them, Ukraine would need more than two thousand PAC-3 interceptor missiles
At the same time, the capabilities of the allies remain limited.
Lockheed Martin's production capacity allows for the production of about 650 PAC-3 interceptor missiles per year. The only licensed manufacturer outside the US is Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, but it produces only 50–60 such missiles per year. In addition, Japanese law prohibits the supply of weapons to countries that are in a state of war
Re-export through third countries could be one of the solutions
Kovalenko emphasizes that the problem lies not only in production but also in political restrictions.
Despite the availability of technology, the key problem is not production, but supply. Many countries have legal restrictions on the transfer of weapons to states that are in a state of war. That is why the option of re-export through third countries is being considered today. For example, Japan produces PAC-3 missiles but cannot directly transfer them to Ukraine. Therefore, options for multi-stage re-export, technology transfer, or other diplomatic mechanisms remain possible
At the same time, among other directions, the expert mentions receiving missiles from new Patriot operators, developing Ukraine's own analogue of the system, and striking enterprises that produce Russian ballistic missiles.
Can IRIS-T replace Patriot
Separately, Kovalenko commented on the capabilities of the German IRIS-T systems, which are already in service with Ukraine. According to him, despite their high effectiveness against cruise missiles, they cannot completely replace Patriot.
IRIS-T is a short and medium-range system that works very effectively against subsonic targets, particularly cruise missiles. But there is currently no confirmed effectiveness against ballistic missiles
Russia uses almost all of its produced resources
Senior analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Anton Zemlyany, earlier in a comment to UNN noted that the current intensity of strikes indicates that Russia is using almost all of its produced stockpile.
We analyzed the spring period. During this time, the Russians used approximately 173 Iskander, S-300, and S-400 ballistic missiles. If we exclude the S-300 and S-400, which are often used as strike weapons, that leaves about 150 ballistic missiles over three months. And they produced about 180 over the same period. That is, their resource for a massive increase in strikes is very limited
At the same time, he noted that the situation with cruise missiles looks much better for Ukraine.
The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense against cruise missiles is currently around 80%. And here the situation is much more stable than with ballistic missiles
Can the situation change in the near future
The problem of combating ballistic missiles remains one of the main challenges for the Ukrainian air defense system in 2026. Unlike attack drones or cruise missiles, the ability to intercept them largely depends on the availability of a limited number of Patriot systems and stocks of expensive PAC-3 interceptor missiles.
Additional attention to this issue is also expected during the upcoming NATO summit, which will take place on July 7–8 in Ankara. The topic of strengthening Ukrainian air defense and finding new mechanisms for providing Ukraine with interceptor missiles could become one of the key issues in allied negotiations against the backdrop of a sharp increase in the intensity of Russian ballistic attacks.
Detonation in Vyshneve after the russian attack is no longer observed - SES06.07.26, 12:47