For the third quarter in a row, businesses have positively assessed the prospects for their economic development, expecting growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace, in business activity over the next 12 months, the NBU reported, citing a survey, UNN writes.
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"For the third quarter in a row, businesses expect business activity to grow in the next 12 months, albeit at a slightly slower pace," the report said.
Despite security risks and logistical difficulties in crossing the border, respondents predicted a stronger increase in the production of goods and services, and were positive about the development of their own businesses. Inflation expectations continued to improve, while exchange rate expectations deteriorated slightly.
Inflation expectations have been improving for the fifth quarter in a row: in Q4 2023, annual inflation was 11.3% in the next 12 months, compared to 14.8% in the previous quarter. Almost a quarter of respondents (24.8%) expected inflation to be between 7.6% and 10.0%.
Expectations regarding the level of devaluation of the national currency slightly deteriorated: the average exchange rate that businesses expect in 12 months is 40.06 UAH/USD. USD (in the previous quarter - 40.00 UAH/USD). The majority of respondents (55.4% compared to 56.5% in the third quarter) expect the hryvnia exchange rate to not exceed 40.00 UAH/USD in the next 12 months. USD.
Reportedly, positive expectations remain regarding sales volumes of own production, investment expenditures on machinery, equipment and inventory, and the future financial and economic situation.
At the same time, the development of enterprises continues to be hampered by the hostilities and their consequences. The impact of the shortage of skilled workers has also increased.
The survey was conducted among CEOs of nearly 660 companies in the fourth quarter of 2023.
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