Under a scenario of achieving a "fragile peace with concessions" in the Russian-Ukrainian war this year, more than half of the current number of refugees from Ukraine will remain in Europe until the end of 2029. This is stated in a study by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UNN reports.
Details
One of the study's scenarios models an option in which Russia maintains de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories, the level of investment in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government remains at a medium or high level, and the temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees in the EU ends in March 2027.
In such a case, it is projected that 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of their current number) will remain in Europe until at least 2029.
Under the second scenario—the "status quo," meaning the continuation of Russian aggression—5.16 million refugees from Ukraine (99% of their current number) will be in Europe by the end of 2029.
Under the third scenario, which envisions a Ukrainian victory with the return of occupied territories by the end of this year, the number of refugees could decrease to 32%.
The UNHCR clarified that these scenarios are not predictive; rather, the study demonstrated how behavior might change in response to various probable future events based on a range of data, including surveys.
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