Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure could have disabled between 20% and 40% of oil refining capacity, and the fuel shortage already directly affects about 50 million Russians, or 35% of the country's population. This is reported by UNN with reference to the Financial Times.
According to the publication, after Ukraine sharply intensified its campaign of strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in May, all ten of Russia's largest refineries came under attack, including the Omsk Oil Refinery, which provides about 7% of the country's total refining capacity.
The Financial Times notes that Russia has stopped publishing a significant portion of statistics, but most analysts, based on indirect data and open sources, estimate the loss of refining capacity at 20–40%.
According to Borys Dodonov, head of the energy and climate direction at the Kyiv School of Economics, in June Russia processed an average of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, which is 28% less than the average over the last five years and 35% below nominal capacity.
The publication notes that the fuel shortage has already caused long queues at gas stations in dozens of regions. Almost 50 constituent entities of the Russian Federation have introduced various restrictions on fuel sales, and in some regions, coupons or rationing of gasoline dispensing are in effect.
The crisis is already beginning to affect not only motorists. In the Siberian city of Chita, a waste removal operator temporarily suspended operations due to a lack of fuel. Possible tariff increases have also been warned by some airlines, taxi representatives, and the largest Russian marketplace, Wildberries.
According to an assessment by Serhiy Vakulenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, the crisis is real, but has not yet led to large-scale disruptions in the transportation of goods or the provision of services.
At the same time, as FT notes, the Kremlin's ability to quickly stabilize the situation is limited. In June, Russia imported a record 141,000 tons of gasoline from Belarus, 141 times more than a year earlier. In addition, Moscow banned the export of diesel fuel to meet the needs of the domestic market and the army.
Recall
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a ban on the export of diesel fuel. The Russian government also postponed refinery repairs and brought in additional capacity.