Global oil prices are heading for their biggest quarterly drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Investors are focused on possible talks between the US and Iran in Doha, as well as the prospects for restoring stable supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reports, citing UNN.
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Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 0.21% to $73.30 per barrel. At the same time, the contract is heading for a third consecutive monthly decline, losing about 20% in June.
The more actively traded September Brent contract rose 0.61% to $74.36 per barrel. US WTI crude for August delivery rose 0.51% to $71.11 per barrel, but also lost about 19% for the month.
Biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic
For the quarter, Brent could fall by about 38%, and WTI by almost 30%. Both grades are currently trading near levels seen before the start of the war between the US and Iran.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the number of available tankers has increased in the market after the partial resumption of shipping in the Persian Gulf.
"I wouldn't say the market has completely shed the risk premium, but vessels that were previously blocked have become available again, temporarily increasing supply," he explained.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley forecasts that in 2027, the global oil market could face a surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day.
US-Iran talks postponed for now
Reuters notes that a high-level meeting between US and Iranian representatives in Doha will not take place this week. According to Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari, the sides will only hold technical consultations on regional security, which may later be elevated to the political level.
Uncertainty about further talks, the agency notes, underscores the fragility of the ceasefire agreements reached on June 17, which allowed for a partial resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, analysts have for the first time since the start of the conflict revised their oil price forecasts for 2026 downward. The reason was a reduction in fears of prolonged supply disruptions after the resumption of shipping through the strategically important strait.
In addition, according to Reuters, the Iraqi state-owned company SOMO has offered significant discounts on Basrah crude for July deliveries to encourage buyers to increase purchases.
Russia increases oil exports to record level amid falling prices - Bloomberg30.06.26, 17:07