Due to the classification of demographics, Russia calculates key indicators using outdated data – intelligence

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Due to the concealment of statistics, Russian agencies are using 2024 data to calculate mortality rates. The margin of error in the regions already reaches 17 percent.

In Russia, due to the classification of demographic statistics, government agencies are forced to use outdated data, leading to distorted calculations of key socio-economic indicators, including mortality, morbidity, and crime rates. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, according to UNN.

Russia has become so obsessed with classifying statistics that it can no longer properly calculate its own problems. After the authorities removed population data from public access in 2025, government agencies began calculating morbidity, mortality, and even crime rates using outdated figures

- the report states.

According to intelligence, this results in a classic Russian management model: if you hide the data, reality seemingly disappears as well. But there is a nuance. Without up-to-date population figures, it is impossible to correctly determine in which regions of the RF the number of sick people is actually growing, how many doctors are needed, and to what extent the crime situation is deteriorating.

Currently, officials only have access to the average annual population for 2024 and data as of January 1, 2025. To calculate the average annual population for 2025 using standard methodology, data as of January 1, 2026, is required, but it has not yet been published.

For instance, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the RF is already calculating traffic fatalities based on 2024 population figures, while the AIDS Center assesses the spread of HIV based on data from the beginning of 2025. The longer the Kremlin hides demographics, the more "paper-based" Russian statistics will become.

In some regions, the difference between real and "frozen" calculations already reaches 15–17%. Russia is gradually but systematically losing the ability to understand how many people it actually has left and what is happening to them.

To save Putin's approval rating, Kremlin sociologists had to change their methodology – Intelligence19.05.26, 11:44

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