During the first half of 2026, the volume of cash in circulation among citizens and businesses of the Russian Federation increased by $17.2 billion. This is the second largest figure after the pandemic year 2020, when the increase was $18.6 billion, reports UNN citing the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Details
This situation became possible for the following reasons:
- Trust in non-cash payments has been shaken: the digital payment infrastructure is malfunctioning, and due to increased state control, Russians prefer not to keep money in banks;
- Bank deposits have become less attractive: after the Russian central bank began easing its monetary policy, the average maximum rate on ruble deposits in the ten largest banks fell from to 12.97% at the beginning of June. At the beginning of January, this figure was 15%.
The consequences for the banking system are already tangible. The structural liquidity deficit of credit institutions increased by 200% – from $8.02 billion at the beginning of the year to $24.07 billion as of June 24. The resource base of banks is rapidly shrinking, and this directly affects lending: consumer loans decreased by approximately 2% year-on-year, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses fell by 7%
The key problem for the Russian Federation is that the central bank does not control the real cost of credit resources. Moreover, the massive shift to cash payments is driving the economy into the "shadow".