The National Bank predicts a gradual increase in excise taxes and tariffs for housing and communal services, which is likely to happen in 2025. UNN learned about this from the National Bank's inflation report.
The forecast assumes that tariffs for gas, heating, and hot water will remain unchanged through 2024. However, the difficult situation in the energy sector and the state budget is likely to lead to a gradual increase in tariffs in the coming years.
It is expected that starting in 2025, tariffs will be gradually brought back to their economically justified levels. Uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of tariff adjustments, especially for energy, is a separate risk to the inflation forecast
The NBU notes that a significant increase in energy prices to quickly eliminate imbalances in the energy sector will create additional inflationary pressure and require a significant increase in subsidies for households.
At the same time, a prolonged postponement of decisions to bring utility tariffs to economically justified levels will lead to lower inflation, but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state-owned energy companies. This will increase the risks of instability in the energy market, reduce the investment potential of the industry, and only postpone price pressure for the future.
Recall
Deputy Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk said that they are not considering raising the electricity tariff to UAH 7, although the cost of electricity for households after the tariff increase remains one of the lowest in Europe.