Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may resort to mass mobilization to avoid losing the war in Ukraine. This option is being considered amid massive Russian losses at the front, Ukrainian drone strikes on the aggressor country's logistics, and a serious fuel crisis in Russia. About this in a column for the Atlantic Council writes Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at the Ukrainian NGO "Come Back Alive," reports UNN.
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At the same time, such a step could pose enormous risks for the Kremlin, because since the start of the full-scale aggression against Ukraine, Putin has made considerable efforts to protect ordinary Russians from the consequences of the war.
Instead, he expected them to refrain from resistance or criticism of his invasion. Any attempt to conscript a large number of Russians into the army would break this unspoken social contract and could potentially destabilize the home front
According to the analyst, mobilization is not the only option available to the dictator. However, alternative options, such as an attack on NATO or another form of escalation, are even riskier.
Since the invasion is now under a very real threat of failure, the one thing Putin can no longer afford is to postpone solving the problem and delay making difficult decisions
Moreover, mass mobilization will be extremely unpopular among Russians, Bielieskov is convinced.
The reaction to the previous mobilization in September 2022 was largely negative: up to a million men of conscription age left the country. At a time when war fatigue is already growing in Russia, any new mobilization will almost certainly face widespread criticism and resistance