british-mega-poll-tilts-toward-harris-victory-in-us-presidential-election-media

British 'mega poll' tilts toward Harris' victory in US presidential election - media

 • 22479 переглядiв

Focaldata, a British company, polled more than 31 ,000 voters across the United States over the past month for an innovative type of poll called “MRP.” The results were provided exclusively to POLITICO and, according to them, Kamala Harris is likely to win the U.S. presidential election, reports UNN

Combining the MRP results with a large-scale online poll of swing states, Focaldata estimates that Harris is likely to take Michigan by a nearly 5-point margin, Nevada by about 2 points over Trump, and by small margins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Focaldata research suggests Trump narrowly beat Harris in Georgia and North Carolina. Polling data and MRP modeling split on Arizona.

Harris's advantage is due in part to her strong appeal to older white women, a historically right-wing group. Trump has made gains among younger black and Hispanic men.

Context

MRP - which stands for “multilevel regression and post-stratification” - is a statistical model that social scientists use to estimate election results at the state level. It takes a huge national sample and then uses demographic data to estimate state-level results.

The method, dubbed “mega polling,” emerged in the UK in 2017, correctly predicting that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament, while most polls suggested she would win by a landslide.

Popular

Scientists find oldest known alphabet in Syrian tomb

 • 36687 переглядiв

Ukrainian flag unfurled in space

 • 17672 переглядiв

News by theme

British 'mega poll' tilts toward Harris' victory in US presidential election - media

 • 22479 переглядiв

Explosions occurred in Sumy - media

 • 30632 переглядiв

Orban says Europe will reconsider support for Ukraine if Trump wins

 • 38354 переглядiв

Russian Army drops 25 bombs in Kursk region - General Staff

 • 30820 переглядiв

Second round of presidential elections in Moldova: turnout exceeds 50%

 • 22661 переглядiв

Finland closes the last Lenin museum outside Russia

 • 24888 переглядiв