UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has resigned. However, the change of head of government is unlikely to affect London's support for Ukraine, as British politics and society traditionally view Russia as a strategic adversary. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi.
Starmer's resignation is a manifestation of democracy at work, not a political catastrophe
Keir Starmer became head of government after the Labour Party's convincing victory in the 2024 parliamentary elections; according to the voting results, Labour received about 33.7% of the vote, which secured them a confident majority in the House of Commons due to the peculiarities of the British majoritarian electoral system. Before coming to power, Starmer positioned himself as a politician who should restore economic stability, improve the functioning of public services, and restore trust in the government after a long period of political turbulence.
The expert emphasizes that frequent changes of prime ministers are not extraordinary for Great Britain. Unlike authoritarian states, the British political system quickly responds to changes in public sentiment and assessments of government effectiveness.
"We know that in Britain such processes occur quite often. Unlike the Russian Federation, this is a democracy that reacts very quickly to the prime minister's performance, to how effective he is for the party and for the state. We have repeatedly seen such examples even in recent years of the war. Therefore, this is primarily about internal political processes, not about some extraordinary crisis of statehood,"
Among the reasons for his resignation, British media and experts cited a decline in public support for the government, criticism of economic policy, disputes within the party over tax and social reforms, as well as dissatisfaction among some voters with the pace of fulfilling election promises. An additional factor was discussions on security and defense policy issues amid growing international tensions.
The security issue became one of the factors of political change
According to the political scientist, recently in British politics, issues of national security and the country's readiness for new challenges have been discussed increasingly actively.
"We remember that earlier the Minister of Defence also resigned, who disagreed with certain approaches to ensuring the security of Great Britain. This is also one of the important factors in the current processes. Britain perfectly understands the threat from the Russian Federation, and the issue of security today is one of the key ones for British society and the political class,"
Support for Ukraine is unlikely to change after the change of prime minister
According to Lisnyi, regardless of who heads the British government after Starmer, a radical revision of policy towards Ukraine should not be expected.
"I look quite calmly at what will happen after Starmer. Perhaps my assessment is somewhat Ukraine-centric, but I see that Britain views Russia as an enemy. That is why any new prime minister and his cabinet are unlikely to flirt with the Russian Federation. Of course, politicians can surprise, but my expectations are that Great Britain will continue to move in a direction beneficial to Ukraine, since we have a common enemy,"
The political scientist believes that the rapid rotation of prime ministers is not a sign of the decline of British democracy. On the contrary, it demonstrates the functioning of political mechanisms.
"Perhaps this will sound not entirely correct, but I believe that when the political class reacts quickly and changes prime ministers, it is much better than a situation where nothing changes for decades. Look at Russia, Belarus, or North Korea – everything is stable there because there is no competition. But in Britain, there is a voter demand, there is political struggle, and there is a desire to find effective solutions. This is a sign that the political organism is alive and developing,"
Britain historically has no illusions about Russia
The expert notes that London's attitude towards Moscow has been shaped over decades, and therefore differs significantly from the positions of some other European countries.
"Britain clearly understands that Russia is an enemy. There are none of those illusions that once existed in some European countries. If you look historically, since the time of Churchill, there has been a sober understanding of the nature of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and now modern Russia. Moreover, the British have repeatedly encountered Russian special operations on their own territory, including the use of banned substances and high-profile spy stories,"
Even a new prime minister is unlikely to change London's course
Commenting on possible successors to Starmer, Lisnyi emphasized that there are currently no grounds to expect serious changes in Great Britain's foreign policy.
"I am not ready to assess specific candidates now, but if you look at recent years, we see a certain continuity in British policy. Johnson, Truss, Sunak, now Starmer have changed, but the general line regarding Ukraine and Russia has remained unchanged. That is why I would not expect any radical reversals. Yes, the world is going through a turbulent period and surprises are possible, but historical experience testifies to the stability of the British position on those issues that are critically important for Ukraine,"
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