The buildup of Russian military activity near the borders of Finland and the Baltic states is raising increasing questions about Moscow's possible plans. At the same time, from a military point of view, the scenario of a rapid invasion of Finland seems unlikely due to the terrain's characteristics, while Estonia could become a significantly easier target for a potential offensive operation. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko.
Construction near Finland's borders is more a show of force than preparation for an offensive
Recently, there have been more and more reports of Russian activity near the Finnish border, particularly regarding the development of military infrastructure and restrictions on border traffic. At the same time, according to the expert, this does not mean that Finland will become the first target of a possible conflict.
Russia will not succeed in a blitzkrieg in Finland. If you look at the geography, it is a very complex theater of operations. The terrain is difficult, with very limited opportunities for rapid troop advancement. Speaking of Helsinki, there is essentially one main logistical artery that can be targeted, and several key areas, capturing which would in itself be an extremely difficult task. That is why I believe that everything happening now near the Finnish border is primarily an attempt to intimidate, create additional tension, and force NATO to focus its attention on this direction
According to him, Russia may use the Finnish direction as a distraction element.
This could be an informational and military demonstration to force partners to concentrate resources near Finland. And the real strike, purely from a military point of view, could be delivered in a completely different place
Estonia appears significantly more vulnerable
In Kovalenko's opinion, in the event of a hypothetical conflict with NATO, Estonia would be the "most logical direction" for Russia.
If we analyze purely the military component, it would be much more logical for Russia to act against Estonia or Latvia. Lithuania is less convenient due to the Belarusian factor, as a large-scale transfer of troops through Belarus would be very difficult to conceal. In contrast, in the Leningrad and Pskov regions, Russia can accumulate forces quite discreetly. There is an opportunity to deploy two combined arms armies, which are entirely sufficient to begin an offensive operation. Additionally, theoretically, Russia could attempt an amphibious landing on the northern coast of Estonia to facilitate advancement towards Narva, and further towards Tallinn
Without a swift NATO response, the situation for Estonia will be critical
According to the expert, Estonia alone does not have sufficient resources to deter a large-scale Russian offensive.
To be frank, Estonia's chances on its own are practically nonexistent. It is a small country – roughly the size of two average Ukrainian oblasts in terms of territory, and its population is even smaller than that of Kharkiv Oblast. Consequently, the size of its army is significantly smaller. If Russia launches an offensive, it will use not only a classic mechanized operation with tanks, artillery, and aviation, but also all the experience gained during the war against Ukraine: FPV drones, massive use of unmanned aerial vehicles, guided aerial bombs, ballistic and cruise missiles
He believes that the issue of air defense system operation will be particularly acute.
Is Tallinn ready to repel a simultaneous raid of hundreds of attack drones? In my opinion, no. In such a situation, the country would very quickly face a large-scale humanitarian crisis. A mass evacuation of the civilian population to Latvia would begin. But there are few logistical routes, and Russia could strike precisely these routes with drones and other means of attack. This would create traffic jams, logistical collapse, complicate troop movement, and effectively open the way for the Russians to encircle Tallinn. By the time NATO fully deploys its forces, Russian troops could already be near the Estonian capital. Then the issue would shift to the realm of urban combat
Finland would be the most disadvantageous direction for Russia
At the same time, Kovalenko is convinced that Finland is one of the most difficult opponents for the Russian army.
Finland is precisely the direction I would choose last. Due to the terrain's characteristics, Russian troops would constantly lose offensive momentum there, suffer heavy losses, and be unable to advance quickly. Purely from a military point of view, an attack on Finland would be extremely exhausting for Russia. That is why, if I were analyzing a possible scenario for the start of a war against NATO countries, I would say that Estonia looks like a much more attractive target for Russia than Finland
Does Russia have enough troops for a new front
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that Russia still has reserves that are not involved in the war against Ukraine.
One should not think that the entire Russian army is currently in Ukraine. That is not the case. They retain internal reserves; there are military formations not engaged in combat operations. If we talk about deploying another combined arms army, Russia is capable of finding the resources for it. Moreover, we have been observing for a long time how they are trying to intensify the processes of voluntary mobilization and increase the number of personnel