Ukraine's population may decline to 28.9 million by 2041 and to 25.2 million by 2051 due to demographic challenges and threats, according to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the Ministry of Social Policy reports, UNN writes.
Details
"Taking into account the challenges and threats that will continue after the end of the war, the population of Ukraine within the 1991 borders, according to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, may decrease to 28.9 million people by January 1, 2041, and to 25.2 million by January 1, 2051," the ministry said.
As indicated, demographic challenges and threats to Ukraine's development are:
rapid population decline as a result of excessive mortality and large-scale labor migration, which often turned into permanent migration, the annexation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, new challenges and threats caused by Russia's armed aggression. According to the State Statistics Service, the population of Ukraine as of the date of the All-Ukrainian Population Census (December 05, 2001) was 48.5 million people. According to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, as of January 1, 2022, the population of Ukraine within the 1991 borders was 42.0 million people, and as of August 2023 - 36.3 million people, including 31.5 million people in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities;
low fertility rate. In 2020 (before the spread of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine), the total fertility rate in Ukraine was 1.2 per woman compared to 1.5 in 2012, which is almost twice lower than its rate that ensures simple reproduction of the population (2.2). During the period of the Russian Federation's armed aggression against Ukraine, due to security risks, high uncertainty about the future, family separation, etc., this indicator dropped to 1.0.
deterioration of the population's health due to the inability to receive timely and high-quality medical care, insufficient disease prevention, numerous stresses, prolonged exposure to unfavorable conditions, which led to a decrease in immunity, exacerbation of old and new chronic diseases;
an increase in the number of people with disabilities, including children and youth in need of comprehensive rehabilitation and support;
high premature mortality rate, primarily among men, associated with mass employment in harmful and dangerous conditions, road accidents, alcohol, psychoactive substances and tobacco abuse, lack of public awareness of healthy lifestyle skills, low accessibility and quality of medical care in rural areas, low welfare and increasing poverty; the impact of these factors has been exacerbated by the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, which has caused numerous deaths of military and civilians, including children; as a result, life expectancy has decreased from 66.4 years (men) to 76.2 years (women) in 2020 to 57.3 and 70.9 years in 2023, respectively (expert assessment);
is a massive forced emigration of the population, primarily women and children, due to the danger, instability and uncertainty of life in Ukraine due to the war; according to the UN Refugee Agency in Ukraine, about 6.3 million people left the country in 2022-2023 due to the fighting and occupation of part of the territory;
illegal transportation of Ukrainian citizens abroad. In particular, the transfer of 19.5 thousand children from the temporarily occupied territories to the Russian Federation has been officially confirmed;
demographic aging. According to 2021 data, the share of people aged 60 and older was 24.8%, which causes additional needs for health and social services, places a significant burden on public finances and the working population, and is a factor in further depopulation;
large-scale internal displacement. In 2022, the number of internally displaced families with children increased 6-fold (from 124 thousand to 739 thousand). Excessive concentration of the population in relatively safe regions causes problems with the availability and quality of basic services, including housing, education, and healthcare, and complicates the employment of internally displaced persons.
At the same time, population forecasting is complicated by the lack of necessary statistical data, in particular, due to the impossibility of taking into account demographic changes in the temporarily occupied territories and the multivariate scenarios of military events.