If the Kremlin, after the State Duma elections in the fall, announces a general mobilization, it could allow Russia to continue a war of attrition, but it will not be a decisive factor in achieving a strategic victory. At the same time, Ukraine must use the "window of opportunity" in the coming months to improve its positions at the front. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko.
A million mobilized - an unrealistic scenario
Recently, there have been increasing assumptions that after the end of the election campaign for the State Duma, the Russian authorities may resort to general mobilization. Some estimates even speak of a million new servicemen. However, according to Oleksandr Kovalenko, such figures seem unrealistic.
I doubt they will be able to mobilize a million people. If they try to do this, the entire system will simply "burst." A more realistic figure is about 500–600 thousand people. Such a resource will allow Russia to solve several tasks simultaneously: maintain combat operations, hold the occupied territories of Ukraine, and also create a reserve for a potential military operation against one of the NATO countries
According to him, the main purpose of such a human resource is not a large-scale offensive.
They need this number not to go to Kyiv again. If you look at the situation rationally, the most effective use of this resource is to hold already captured territories, primarily in defense. This is a deterrent factor. If they throw these forces into large offensive operations, then by the end of 2027 this resource will be practically exhausted. Then Russia will again return to approximately the same level of exhaustion that we observe now
At the same time, if the mobilized are used mainly for defense, the war could enter an even more protracted phase.
In this case, the conflict could turn into a long-term trench standoff with constant ultimatums, demands for surrender, and a war of attrition. That is, the number of people alone does not automatically decide anything. What is decisive is how exactly this resource will be used
Ukraine has several months to change the situation
According to the military expert, before Russia's new mobilization resource appears, Ukraine has the opportunity to improve its own position on the battlefield.
We must take advantage of the window of opportunity and improve our disposition in the theater of operations as much as possible before they get this additional "meat." The best window of opportunity, in my opinion, could open in the second half of August and last approximately until the first half of October. In fact, this is about two months when the situation at the front can be significantly changed
According to the expert, if Ukraine uses this time effectively, even a significant replenishment of the Russian army will not guarantee it an advantage.
If we can improve our positions now, then even with a large number of personnel, it will be much more difficult for the Russians to oppose us. Further, everything will be determined by other factors: the capabilities of Deep Strike, Middle Strike - long-range means of destruction and many other components of modern warfare
Putin will likely go for general mobilization
Assessing the prospects of the Kremlin's decisions, the expert suggests that the Russian authorities are unlikely to refuse such a step.
I believe that Putin will go for general mobilization. I don't see any factors now that could stop him. Most likely, immediately after the State Duma elections, the process of launching general mobilization will begin
At the same time, he does not expect a quick end to hostilities.
There is no need to talk about a ceasefire in the near future. Everyone would like the war to end, but we need to soberly assess reality. At least until the end of 2026, and probably in the first half of 2027, there will be no ceasefire
The mobilization age in Ukraine should not be lowered
Against the backdrop of a possible expansion of mobilization in Russia, discussions about a possible lowering of the mobilization age in Ukraine are increasingly arising. However, Kovalenko opposes such a scenario.
I have always been an opponent of lowering the mobilization age. Young people aged 18–24 can already voluntarily sign a contract and receive appropriate financial support. But I consider an automatic legal reduction of the age limit for mobilization to be an undesirable step
According to the expert, the state should think not only about today's war, but also about the future of the country.
Who will restore the state after the war, work, create the economy, give birth to the next generations, if we send everyone to the front? We need to think not only about the military aspect, but also about the social and humanitarian one. We risk losing a generation of people who should build the country after the war. Many will die, many will lose their health - physical or psychological. This is also a matter of national security that needs to be thought about now
The pace of Russian troops' advance has dropped 16-fold over the year - ISW02.07.26, 07:44