Representatives of the Russian authorities have begun to talk about the possibility of resuming the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, Ukraine continues to inflict increasingly tangible strikes on the military and energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation, and in Washington, the effectiveness of Ukraine's defense is increasingly being recognized. Does this mean that the sides are approaching real peace negotiations, in an exclusive commentary UNN told international expert, candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
In Washington, they are beginning to realize that the initial strategy towards Russia did not work
According to the expert, one of the main positive signals of recent times is the change in the perception of the war in the American administration. In his words, the US is increasingly understanding that attempts to convince the Kremlin with diplomatic concessions have not yielded results.
Indeed, there are certain positive shifts, although they remain restrained for now. First of all, it is about a change in the perception of the situation in the United States. We have repeatedly said that if the Donald Trump administration had taken a tougher stance towards Russia from the very beginning, rather than seeking concessions from Ukraine, the situation could have developed completely differently. Now in Washington, it seems, they are beginning to realize that previous approaches have not yielded results
According to him, the Kremlin has ignored virtually all signals that came from the American side over the past months.
We saw that neither various negotiation formats, nor personal contacts with Putin, nor talks about sanctions, nor economic incentives worked. The Russian dictator was not ready to change his position. That is why now more and more attention is being paid to other mechanisms of influence that could force the Kremlin to reconsider its calculations
Ukrainian strikes on the Russian rear are changing the balance of perception of the war
Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that Ukraine's successes in developing its own defense technologies and long-range capabilities play an important role in changing international sentiment.
Ukraine has significantly strengthened its capabilities. We see the development of drone technologies, missile programs, and an increase in the range of strikes on Russian territory. What seemed impossible a few years ago has become a reality today. Strikes are already reaching targets deep in the rear of the Russian Federation, and this is a serious result both for the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex and for our partners who help develop these capabilities
According to the political scientist, it is these factors that are gradually creating additional pressure on the Russian leadership.
Russian propaganda tries to show that the situation is under control, but the facts indicate otherwise. Even in Russian society, it is becoming increasingly difficult to explain why a war that supposedly takes place somewhere far away suddenly begins to manifest itself in the form of strikes on targets deep in the Russian rear
It is too early to talk about the Kremlin's readiness for peace
Despite individual statements by Russian officials about readiness for negotiations, there are no real grounds to talk about a quick start to the peace process yet, Zhelikhovsky believes.
I have no illusions about Russia. Yes, we hear statements about readiness for negotiations, but at the same time, the same Russian officials continue to blame Ukraine for not wanting peace. This is absolutely not true. Ukraine has repeatedly stated its readiness for negotiations, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also repeatedly emphasized this
According to the expert, currently we can only talk about the first signals and attempts to form a future negotiation platform.
A certain window of opportunity may indeed be opening. But for now, this does not mean that Russia is ready for real peace here and now. This requires much stronger pressure on the Kremlin. This is exactly what Ukraine and its allies are working on today
Ukraine demonstrates results even with significantly fewer resources
The expert drew attention to the fact that Ukraine has managed to achieve significant results, having much fewer resources than Russia and its partners.
We should not forget that Russia is not fighting alone. It received drone technology from Iran, massive aid from North Korea, and support from China. At the same time, Ukraine has significantly fewer of its own resources - human, economic, and territorial. But even under such conditions, the Ukrainian state demonstrates the ability to inflict very tangible blows on the enemy and effectively deter the aggressor
In his opinion, this is increasingly influencing the assessments of Western partners.
Americans and Europeans see that Ukraine not only survived the most difficult periods of the war but also continues to build up its capabilities. And this becomes an important argument in favor of further support for our state
Cautious optimism exists, but there is still a lot of work ahead
Summing up, Zhelikhovsky emphasized that current events give reason for restrained optimism, but it is still premature to talk about a quick end to the war.
There is indeed some optimism. We see positive changes in the assessments of our partners, we see the strengthening of Ukrainian capabilities and the understanding that Russia must be forced into dialogue through pressure. But it is still too early to say that the Kremlin is ready for peace. To achieve this, it is necessary to continue political, economic, and military pressure. Only then can real prerequisites for serious negotiations appear