Russian dictator Vladimir Putin started the war in Ukraine to preserve his power and the system he created. Now, for the first time since the start of the conflict, Russians are beginning to imagine a future without him. An unnamed "former high-ranking Russian government official" told The Economist about this, UNN reports.
Details
It is noted that this state of affairs is driven by a combination of four factors.
The rising cost of hostilities
The war in Ukraine was supposed to be a special military operation conducted by select groups receiving financial incentives for their efforts, while the rest of society continued to live as usual. This model collapsed as the war grew in duration and scale.
This has led to rising inflation and taxes, neglected infrastructure, increased censorship, and endless bans. This is not a national war, but it is being paid for at a national level, and society is offered no purpose in return,
Growing demand for rules among the elites, who were forced to return to Russia along with their capital
Previously, their property rights were outsourced to the West. They used London courts, offshore structures, and international arbitration to resolve conflicts or seek protection. Now, conflicts must be resolved within the country, without functioning institutions. The demand for rules is growing as the redistribution of assets gains momentum.
Over the past three years, assets worth about 5 trillion rubles ($60 billion) have been seized from private entrepreneurs and either nationalized or handed over to loyalists and cronies, marking the largest redistribution of property since the mass privatizations of the 1990s. It is not that the elites have suddenly discovered a taste for the rule of law or democracy. But even those loyal to the regime seek rules and institutions that can fairly resolve conflicts,
Trump claims no agreement with Putin that Russia "should get the entire Donbas"12.05.26, 21:54
A changing geopolitical climate, which Putin himself helped bring about
Russia considers itself a state that is changing the world order. In reality, it is only a catalyst: Russia's war against Ukraine has accelerated the crisis of Western democracy, the rise of populism, and fatigue with globalization. Russia now finds itself in a world where rules are weak, and economic and technological power and brute force dominate.
In a rules-based world, Russia could exploit asymmetries: Europe's dependence on its gas, its seat on the UN Security Council, and its Soviet nuclear legacy. But Europe now buys its gas elsewhere, Russia's place on the Security Council has been devalued along with the UN itself, and its nuclear blackmail has undermined the non-proliferation regime, stripping Russia of its status as an arbiter. When the order itself begins to crumble, the advantages of Putin's revisionism quickly disappear,
It is pointed out that at the same time, Russia is experiencing an identity crisis: for the first time in generations, it lacks an external model on which it could define itself.
Historically, it defined itself in relation to Europe and the broader West. They were there to catch up with, fall behind, or oppose. This old axis has disappeared. The West as a single cultural, military, and political entity is in crisis. There is no "there" against which to define "here." This is not an ideological issue, but a structural one. Any development in Russia must have an internal source of meaning, and the government is unable to provide it,
Growing ideological control without any balancing dividends
The previous social contract, under which the state stayed out of people's personal lives and citizens stayed out of politics, has collapsed. In the past, the system bought people's loyalty with comforts, services, and consumption. Now, all it can offer is repression, invasion, and censorship, the most striking manifestation of which is this year's internet restrictions.
The problem is not so much the repression itself, but repression without a purpose. Ideology, by definition, implies an image of the future. This one demands discipline without offering it. People are required to be loyal without being told what future this loyalty serves. The political reality looks undesirable even to most of the technocrats involved in its construction. Optimism has burned out from within,
Running out of moves
In his opinion, all four factors create a situation known in chess as zugzwang: when every move worsens the position.
"The system can exist as long as Mr. Putin remains in power. But every step he takes to preserve and expand it accelerates its collapse. His instinctive reaction may be to increase repression. He may start a new war. But these actions will only make the situation worse. He cannot restore the link between power and the future. He can only make the rupture bloodier and more dangerous," the former Russian official concludes.
Reminder
The Kremlin repeated Vladimir Putin's statement that the war against Ukraine is allegedly "nearing its end." At the same time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Moscow shows no intention of stopping the hostilities and is preparing new attacks.
Putin is losing control over Russia - The Economist13.05.26, 01:32