The government has launched a controlled mechanism for the export of weapons and defense technologies, which will be in effect until the end of martial law and for six months after its conclusion. This decision is indeed a step towards opening the export of defense products, but at the same time, the new procedure does not change the foundations of the current export control system. What has changed and where barriers remain - analyzed by UNN.
This refers to the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of July 1, 2026, No. 875 "Procedure for International Transfers of Military Goods and Dual-Use Items during the Period of Martial Law in Ukraine."
What is the essence of the changes approved by the Cabinet of Ministers
From now on, an application for a permit must be reviewed within no more than 30 calendar days, and for partner countries of the Drone Deal format, approval from the relevant interagency commission is not required at all.
The mechanism applies to the export of military goods, dual-use items, and technologies worth over 15 million UAH (the threshold does not apply to components). The list of countries where supplies are permitted is compiled by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the list of critical goods prohibited for transfer will be compiled by the Ministry of Defense.
It is important that the manufacturer must prove its ability to fulfill export orders without harming the execution of state orders.
Technologies are transferred without alienation of intellectual property rights, with mandatory control over re-export and a 20 percent payment from the value of goods manufactured using such technologies in case of their further transfer to third countries.
Experts are already drawing attention to the half-heartedness of the decisions made by the government.
In particular, the new procedure generally does not abolish the key elements of the current export control system. It does not remove the need for registration and preliminary examination of goods at the State Export Control Service. It does not cancel interagency coordination with the SBU, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the GUR, the Ministry of Defense, and other bodies. It does not make the procedure universally accessible for all countries. And it does not eliminate the financial risk for a company that must pay a significant amount even before receiving the final permit.
Therefore, it would be premature to talk about a radical simplification.
30 days is not the full duration of the procedure
One of the main theses surrounding the new procedure is that a permit must be issued within 30 calendar days.
"For businesses, this sounds good. But these 30 days cannot be considered separately from other stages of the procedure. The new procedure does not cancel the preliminary examination of goods at the State Export Control Service. And such an examination, according to current regulations, can last up to 60 days," points out Deputy General Director of Inkompas LLC, member of the Public Council at the State Export Control Service of Ukraine Andriy Minakov.
According to him, in practice, this means that the stated 30 days can turn into 90 days of total waiting: 60 days of preliminary examination plus 30 days of reviewing the permit application.
"And 90 days is no longer a fast track and not a significant acceleration. This is, in fact, the standard timeframe that businesses have encountered before," Minakov believes.
Therefore, the key question is not whether the number "30" has appeared in the procedure. The question is how long the entire process will actually take from the company's first application to the actual receipt of the permit.
The main barrier – interagency coordination – remains
The biggest problem for exporters has always been not only the number of documents or the form of the application. The main unpredictability arose at the stage of interagency coordination.
The new procedure does not cancel coordination with the SBU, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the GUR, the Ministry of Defense, and other bodies. And it is the results of such coordination, according to the practical experience of the market, that were the reason for the vast majority of refusals to grant permits.
"This factor remains. And this is the main thing that businesses must understand about the new procedure. Yes, the procedure may provide for deadlines or individual elements of tacit approval. But if the very logic of interagency assessment does not change, then unpredictability will remain," explains Minakov.
He emphasizes that a company can prepare documents, undergo preliminary expert review, have a contract and a buyer, but still be dependent on the position of several bodies, whose criteria are not always transparent for the market.
"For business, this means a simple thing: formally, the procedure has changed, but the key risk of refusal has not disappeared anywhere," adds the representative of LLC "Incompass".
30% before the permit – this is a financial roulette
Even more problematic, according to Minakov, is the issue of payment for the processing and issuance of the permit.
"For some transactions, a company must pay up to 30% of the value of the goods to the budget even before receiving the final permit. And here, not only the burden itself is important, but also the moment of payment. If a business pays a significant amount in advance but then receives a refusal, this is no longer an administrative procedure. This is financial roulette. Especially if, in the event of a refusal, the state keeps these funds for itself," he believes.
For a manufacturer of defense products, 30% of the value of the goods is not a technical fee. It is working capital that could have been directed towards production, components, salaries, R&D, fulfilling a state order, or scaling up capacities.
Minakov believes that even for large companies, such a payment can be painful, and for small and medium-sized manufacturers, it could become a complete stop factor.
"As a result, the state seems to open the possibility for international transfers, but at the same time places a high financial barrier in front of businesses. And not every company will be able or willing to risk such funds before receiving a final decision," believes the representative of the company "Incompass".
The procedure will only work for a limited group of countries
Another important point: the new procedure is not a universal mechanism for any international transfers.
"It will only work with respect to a defined group of states. That is, it is not enough for a company to have the goods, a contract, and a potential buyer. The destination country must be on the relevant list, and the operation itself must pass all the required approvals," explains Minakov.
He emphasizes that from a security perspective during wartime, this is understandable. But from a business perspective, it means the mechanism will only be available in a limited number of cases.
"Therefore, this is not an opening of the market in the classical sense. It is a controlled regime of selective access. And if the criteria for forming the list of countries are not clear and predictable, it will be difficult for companies to build a long-term international strategy," adds the specialist.
What was actually simplified?
"To be honest, there is a real simplification in the new procedure. But it is just one. Exporters do not need to obtain separate powers for the export of military goods under the old procedure. This is important because obtaining such powers could take up to six months," says Minakov.
According to him, for a company that is just planning to enter international markets, this is a positive change.
"But this does not mean that the entire procedure has become simple. It means that one large stage has been removed. At the same time, the preliminary expert review, interagency coordination, country restrictions, significant payment before receiving the permit, and the risk of refusal remain. Furthermore, those companies that have long been seriously planning exports have already been engaged in obtaining the relevant powers or have gone through this procedure. Therefore, for part of the market, this simplification will not be revolutionary," emphasizes Minakov.
According to the representative of the company "Incompass", the government's decision is not a radical simplification nor a full-fledged opening of the market. It is a special wartime procedure that creates an opportunity for international transfers but leaves most of the key risks in place.
"The new procedure does not cancel the registration and preliminary expert review of goods at the State Export Control Service. It does not remove the interagency coordination, which was the main source of refusals. It does not guarantee that 30 days on paper will not turn into 90 days in practice. It does not make the mechanism available for all countries. And it creates a serious financial risk due to the need to pay a significant portion of the value of the goods even before receiving the permit," believes Minakov.
Therefore, the main question today is not whether international transfers have been formally allowed. The question is whether this procedure will become a real working tool for businesses.
For now, the answer is not obvious.
The Ukrainian defense industry needs international markets. But, as Minakov emphasizes, it needs not only formal permissions. It needs predictable timelines, clear approval criteria, adequate access costs, and a procedure in which the manufacturer does not risk losing significant funds before the state makes a final decision.