Information about Russia's possible preparation of an armed provocation against NATO countries has once again brought the issue of the Alliance's eastern flank security to the forefront. If the Kremlin decides to take such a step, its main goal will be not only a military effect, but also an attempt to destroy Western unity, demonstrate NATO's weakness, and force European countries to reconsider their support for Ukraine. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by political scientist Dmytro Levus.
The scenario of a Russian provocation against NATO is quite real
According to the expert, the very possibility of Russian aggression against one of the NATO countries no longer seems fantastic, given the experience of the last decade.
I believe that such a scenario is entirely possible. If we recall the events of 2014, few could have imagined that Russia would occupy Crimea and officially declare it its own. The full-scale invasion of 2022 also showed that the Kremlin is ready for steps that previously seemed impossible. Therefore, today there is no reason to dismiss such a scenario
He recalled that in recent years, Russia has repeatedly carried out provocations against NATO countries.
We have seen provocations against Poland in the form of drone flights, incidents near the borders of the Baltic states, information and psychological operations, and the regular appearance of unknown drones in the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Germany. All of this is part of a single strategy of gradually increasing tension
The Kremlin's main goal is to undermine trust in NATO
According to the political scientist, Russia will seek to use any crisis to demonstrate the Alliance's alleged inability to fulfill its security guarantees.
The main goal of such actions is obvious – to split Western unity, demonstrate NATO's incapacity as a defense alliance, and sow doubts about the effectiveness of its protection mechanisms. At the same time, Russia will try to convince European countries that if they stop supporting Ukraine, they can supposedly avoid confrontation with the Kremlin. This is exactly what this strategy is designed for
The West's reaction will depend on the format of the attack
The expert emphasized that the response of NATO and the US will largely be determined by which specific scenario Russia implements.
If it is a hybrid operation – for example, the use of drones, sabotage groups, or an attempt to stage some kind of "popular uprising" in certain areas of Estonia or Latvia – then Russia may expect that discussions will begin within NATO regarding the scale of the response. It is precisely on this uncertainty that the Kremlin is apparently betting
At the same time, Levus stressed that this does not automatically mean the Alliance will refuse a military response.
It cannot be said that NATO will definitely not respond. But the Russians may expect that in the case of a hybrid scenario, there will first be an attempt at diplomatic settlement, negotiations, or a search for a political solution. It is this uncertainty that is one of the elements of their plan
Escalation will not be beneficial for Ukraine
According to Levus, the assumption that opening a new front will automatically improve Ukraine's situation is overly simplistic.
I do not share the opinion that escalation against NATO countries will automatically be beneficial for Ukraine. Such scenarios are very complex and non-linear. On the contrary, they could divert the attention and resources of our partners to a new crisis. Ukraine is interested in this not happening, and that is precisely why it constantly emphasizes the need to contain Russia
As an example, the expert cited the situation with Belarus.
We see that Ukraine is trying to do everything possible to prevent Belarus from being drawn into a full-scale war. This once again confirms that expanding the conflict is not a desirable scenario for Ukraine
Crises inside Russia could push the Kremlin towards new escalation
The political scientist believes that Russia's internal problems do not at all guarantee a refusal from aggressive steps.
It is precisely because of economic difficulties, military problems, and the general crisis that the Russian leadership may resort to even riskier decisions. For the Kremlin, this is a way to change the agenda, so to speak, to flip the table. Russian politics is characterized by such hysterical decision-making logic, so the expansion of aggression is entirely possible
China is not capable of restraining Russia
Commenting on the possible role of Beijing, Levus urged not to exaggerate China's influence on the Kremlin's decisions.
I think we should not overestimate China's capabilities. Undoubtedly, Beijing benefits from the confrontation between Russia and the West continuing and NATO being under constant pressure. For China, the current situation is quite comfortable
At the same time, according to the expert, this does not mean that the Chinese leadership is capable of controlling Moscow's actions.
Despite the fact that China tries to position itself as a mediator in relations with Russia, its influence actually has its limits. This is well understood in Beijing. Therefore, I do not think that China is capable of actually stopping the Russian leadership if it decides on a new escalation