Expert of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" Oleksandr Kraev commented to UNN on the fate of the law on assistance to Ukraine in case of a new president after the US elections. The expert noted that another US president will be able to block the allocation of funds to Ukraine. However, Congress has the ability to veto the president's veto.
Context
On April 20, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill to help Ukraine. The total amount of aid is almost $61 billion:
- 49.9 billion - defense spending
- 7.8 billion - potential budget support
- 1.57 billion - economic assistance
- 400 million for border protection and humanitarian demining.
In addition, the bill obliges the US president to immediately transfer long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. However, the president has the right to refuse if it is contrary to US national security.
What the expert says
Oleksandr Kraev told a UNN journalist that the story with support packages is that they are provided for a year, but within a year, every 2-3 weeks, a maximum of a month, they are "cut into tranches".
"That is to say, it is not one big pile of money that has just been allocated and now it is there, and something is being squeezed out of it a little bit. One tranche is allocated for each period, about a month, and in cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Pentagon determines what exactly will be in this tranche, what Ukraine needs more now, it may be an emphasis on air defense, or tanks, or artillery, etc. So it's a completely different approach every time," Kraev explained.
According to him, the Pentagon is now saying that once this aid package is signed, they will be able to deliver the first tranche from their European stockpiles within 2-3 days. In other words, he said, the timeframe is actually very, very long.
Risks of a Presidential Change in the United States
The expert noted that Joe Biden will sign the bill on aid to Ukraine immediately after the Senate vote. The Senate is expected to pass it on Tuesday, April 23.
Kraev also commented on whether the new US president would be able to block the allocation of funds provided for in the Ukraine aid law.
As for whether another president could block the allocation of these funds? They can, but Congress has the ability to veto the president's veto, and therefore, in the most extreme case, even a presidential ban on supplies can be circumvented, and, in principle, there are absolutely legal reasons for this and the Congress has the tools for this in both houses
He noted that the Republicans have a majority only in the House of Representatives, the Senate has a majority of Democrats, and it is the Senate that can unilaterally veto the decisions of another president, such as Donald Trump, who is Biden's main rival in the upcoming elections, if he wins.
"Moreover, there will be elections to Congress, and this will change the balance of power," Kraev added.
In addition, the expert noted that disruptions and delays in the Senate are impossible.
"The Senate is the more disciplined of the two chambers. The Senate has already agreed on this package at the level of Chuck Schumer (Democratic leader) and McConnell (Republican leader), so it's a matter of a formal vote. Plus, it won't be a problem to get a majority in the Senate, where the majority is Democrats, even if the Republicans are not ready to vote for it," Kraev explained.