Russia will use the freezing of hostilities in Ukraine to take a break and plan a more brutal attack in a few years, potentially involving not only Ukraine but also neighboring countries and even NATO members. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba in an article for the American magazine Foreign Affairs, UNN reports.
Some analysts believe that freezing the conflict through a ceasefire is a realistic option at this point. Proponents of this scenario argue that it would reduce Ukrainian losses and allow Ukraine and its partners to focus on economic recovery and reconstruction, integration into the European Union and NATO, and the long-term development of our defense capabilities
According to him, the problem is not only that the ceasefire will now reward Russian aggression.
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"Instead of ending the war, a ceasefire would simply suspend hostilities until Russia is ready to make a new push deeper into the country. In the meantime, it would allow the Russian occupation forces to fortify their positions with concrete and minefields, making it impossible to drive them out in the future and condemning millions of Ukrainians to decades of repression under occupation. The Russian budget of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine for 2024 in the amount of 3.2 trillion Russian rubles (about 35 billion dollars) is a clear proof of Moscow's plan to dig in for the long term and suppress resistance to the Russian occupation authorities," the minister said.
Kuleba noted that a negotiated ceasefire is not even being considered.
Indeed, as Kuleba recalled, from 2014 to 2022, there were approximately 200 rounds of negotiations with Russia in various formats, as well as 20 attempts to establish a ceasefire in the smaller war that followed Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and occupation of eastern Ukraine.
"If the front line were frozen now, there is no reason to believe that Russia would not use this respite to plan a more brutal attack in a few years, potentially involving not only Ukraine but also neighboring countries and even NATO members. Those who believe that Russia will not attack a NATO country after celebrating success in Ukraine should remember how unbelievable a large-scale invasion of Ukraine seemed just two years ago," Kuleba said.