At the end of the year, businesses downgraded their assessment of current results and prospects. This is evidenced by the NBU Business Activity Expectations Index, UNN reports.
Details
In December 2023, the index reportedly dropped to 45.7 from 49.1 in November.
As indicated, the valuations of enterprises were negatively affected:
- uncertainty about the duration of hostilities;
- Risks of irregularity of receipts and insufficient international assistance;
- Increased logistics costs due to the blocking of the border;
- high fuel prices;
- narrowing of investment and weakening of consumer demand;
- lack of qualified personnel.
In particular, after nine consecutive months of positive expectations, enterprises of trade worsened their business activity assessments due to a decrease in imports of goods due to the blockade of the border and a decrease in the purchasing power of the population.
For the second month in a row, enterprises of industry predicted a deterioration in their economic performance, given the decline in export and import operations, rising logistics costs due to the blockade of the border, and high fuel prices.
Enterprises in the services sector increased their negative assessments of their current performance, in particular due to weak demand.
Construction enterprises somewhat softened, but again provided the most pessimistic estimates of their economic performance among other sectors, given the seasonal decline in economic activity, narrowing investment demand, and lack of qualified personnel.
All survey respondents, except for industrial enterprises, predicted a slowdown in the growth of purchase prices and prices/tariffs for their own products/services.
At the same time, estimates of employment were mixed. Managers of most sectors continued to expect a decline in the total number of employees, most notably in the construction sector. On the other hand, trade firms were set to increase the number of employees.