President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the United States and the European Council's decision to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU are the main events of the outgoing year. Elections in many countries and a long, drawn-out war are the challenges that await the state in 2024. Such opinions and forecasts were expressed by UNN political scientists.
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"The main challenge (this year - ed.) in the international arena is the continuation of support for Ukraine by our partners, both the US and the EU. As we can see, there are serious problems in continuing to fund aid, both in the US Congress and in the EU. Therefore, overcoming these contradictions is now a key challenge, because Ukraine is too dependent on Western aid to support the economy, military weapons, ammunition, missiles, etc.", said Maksym Yali.
According to him, the quantity and quality of the F-16s will be important, because without air superiority, it is extremely difficult to carry out successful offensive operations.
"The quantity and quality of the F-16s received will also be important if we are talking about the situation at the front, because, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in 2023 demonstrated, it is extremely difficult to carry out successful offensive operations without air superiority. These are the main events of 2023 - the unrealized expectations, both inside and outside the country, regarding Ukraine's counteroffensive in the summer, which, of course, affects the level of support from Western partners," Yali said.
In his opinion, the key events of 2023 will be the collision of Ukrainian society with reality.
"I would say that the key events of 2023 and their outcome will be the confrontation of Ukrainian society with reality as it is. Russia has prepared for our counteroffensive, made serious fortifications and was ready for it, especially using its air superiority," Yali said.
According to him, it is now imperative for Ukrainian society to rethink these events and the fact that 2024, as noted by the military leadership, will be at least as difficult as 2023.
"That is, the realization that this war will continue and requires the accumulation of all efforts, of the whole society, not just the leadership," the political scientist said.
Наступний рік на фронті може бути ще важчим – Тарнавський27.12.23, 11:02
In addition, Yali commented on Ukraine's European integration process in 2024.
"In principle, in 2023, we received the maximum we could achieve at the moment, namely, the status of an EU candidate, but there is still a long way to go to adapt legislation, implement reforms, and fight corruption, which is extremely important. Therefore, in principle, negotiations on membership with the EU will begin, and certain requirements will probably be put forward to Ukraine on this path of reforms, but it will be extremely difficult to achieve significant success in a year and in the context of war, but the main thing is that we have embarked on this path. In the future, a lot depends on our own ability to achieve the necessary criteria for EU membership," said Jali.
У Мінфін прозвітували як йде підготовка до переговорів про вступ до ЄС26.12.23, 19:39
According to political scientist Olesya Yakhno, the key challenges facing Ukraine in 2024 are related to a long, drawn-out war, elections in many important countries, and conflicts in the world.
"The first challenge is a long, extended war in time. We can already see that military and financial assistance is becoming more difficult to obtain, and in this sense, a long trench war has many risks, including Russia's approach to sit out the West. When Russia counts on the fatigue of Western society, on election processes, when attention will be focused on internal issues. Russia is outnumbered by Ukraine and expects that in this way a long, time-consuming war will help Russia to sit out the West and wait for the fatigue of the West and Ukraine," Yakhno said.
According to her, the challenge is to restructure Ukraine's strategy and tactics, not only military, but also economic and political.
"The discussion within the political process about the need to continue reforms in the context of a long war is a big challenge for Ukraine, because in addition to the front, the rear matters, and it matters how invulnerable and strong we are from within. To what extent we can withstand a long war, and not just withstand, but also develop. I am referring to our movement towards the European Union," Yakhno said.
"Ми не зупинимося": Данілов визнав, що контрнаступ України не виправдав очікувань12.12.23, 09:36
Yakhno noted that the second challenge is directly related to the extended war in time.
"These are elections in many countries that focus the authorities' attention on domestic issues. Depending on the outcome, the elections can affect the decrease, increase or maintenance of the collective solidarity of the West. Next year, there will be several elections that will involve about a quarter of the world's population. These will be the elections in Taiwan, which will determine China's future tactics, and therefore the West will also focus on China and Taiwan," Yahno said.
Next, she said, will be elections in India, which are important in terms of confronting authoritarian and totalitarian regimes.
"The U.S. elections in November are very important for us, and a lot depends on them. At the moment, when there is no de jure start of the election campaign between the two candidates, we can already see the discussions that are taking place and how this affects the delay in providing assistance to Ukraine. We don't know who the Republican candidate will be. Even if it is not Trump, there is still a risk that there will be a candidate who adheres to the isolationist line," Yakhno said.
She also recalled the British parliamentary elections and the European Parliament elections in the summer.
"There is a third challenge: conflicts around the world. We see how countries that are interested in wars or in reducing the unity of the West, such as Iran and Russia, benefit from them. The war in the Middle East defocuses attention. Today, there are several other potential hot spots in the world. That is, where a potentially conflict situation could escalate into a hot one. These are the Western Balkans, Africa, and the Arctic," Yakhno said.
The political scientist noted that today there are 183 conflicts of varying intensity in the world - hot and cold, but the trend is that they are not decreasing, but increasing.
"Therefore, the risk of increased conflicts is threatening for us not only in terms of possible complications in the provision of assistance or a shift in attention, but also risky because coalitions may break down," Yakhno said.
Summarizing, she noted that it is important for Ukraine to demonstrate unity within the country during this period.
"Therefore, even in conditions when there is a delay in the provision of military assistance, or when this or that issue may be postponed, it is very important for Ukraine to demonstrate unity within, and not just unity when everyone adheres to the same position, there should be no discussions, no, there should be discussions. It is normal that the government and the opposition have different views on some issues. But what should unite us is the desire for real structural change, and unity around processes and important topics where everyone would like to achieve results," Yakhno emphasized.
Political scientist Volodymyr Volia named the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the launch of a new Black Sea corridor without Russia among the main events of 2023.
"Among international events, this is the Formula for Peace. Discussing the Ukrainian option for ending the war, with the participation of several dozen states, is also an important moment," Volya said.
In his opinion, the most important events are still President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the United States and his meeting with the American leadership.
Another important event of this year is the decision of the European Council to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession.
"In fact, this decision to start negotiations is a tough and clear statement by the EU that Putin will not wait, and the EU will continue to support Ukraine," Volya said.